The journey to the 2027 FIBA World Cup has just started. The good news is that we already went through the worst match-ups against Australia and New Zealand. This is why we started the 4th window in a 2-4 rut.
The teams that Gilas need to overtake, Jordan and Iran, still need to face three games against the Oceania teams. Assuming they end up losing all of them like we did, then we would make the top three in Group E if we win our remaining assignments.
It is of primary importance that we make the top three rather than take a chance at being the better fourth placer. Group F is much more unpredictable, and it is unclear which team will beat who. We have two games against Syria, which dropped their outings against Iran and Jordan. That’s a plus factor for us. If we can repeat against both of them, we can be assured of third place.
Realizations: The New Core
Aside from the crucial victories, the fourth window gave us important realizations. First and most important, that there is life after Justin Brownlee. We have become too dependent on him in the past two years, not just with his talent but his availability.
Brownlee was supposed to be coach Tim Cone’s safety net, but he ended up being the fulcrum of the team, specifically on offense. This is glaringly evident with our slow starts, especially in the Jordan game. The team needed to have their backs against the wall and get baskets generated by defense (fastbreaks off turnovers) before we could get efficient offensive sets. Other teams may not be so forgiving and Gilas could end up in holes too deep to escape from.
It can’t be overstated, but the two games proved our point again: we need better shooters. We shot 18% and 28% from beyond the arc. Stingy defense was the key to survival, but these numbers won’t hack it at the world stage.
Speaking of needing shooters in the lineup, the biggest realization is that some players really need to be replaced by better options. The new core of the team should be Kai Sotto, AJ Edu, Carl Tamayo, Kevin Quiambao, Dwight Ramos, CJ Perez, Juan Gomez de Liano.
That’s it. Tim Cone would insist on Scottie Thompson, and he is good for the intangibles. But we need to find four other players. The frontline options are limited, so it’s Quentin Millora-Brown and/or Mike Phillips and hopefully Bennie Boatwright to add range.
We have a wealth of guards, but we still don’t have true shooters and guaranteed buckets.
The Asian Games: Audition for Fifth Window
The names of Robert Bolick and Adrian Nocum are welcome developments for the team. These are the best scorers in the PBA, known to take over games. Their performance in the Asian Games (if they make the final lineup) will be a barometer. Can their PBA game translate on the international stage? Will they be liabilities on defense (an important factor for Tim Cone)?
Also under the microscope are the two Justins: Arana and Baltazar. They were the reserves on the 4th window, but with JuneMar Fajardo gone and the availability of QMB still questionable, they can prove themselves worthy of a rotation spot in the Asiad.
Most of the other players in the Asian Games roster are not eligible for FIBA, so it’s these four players, unless Zavier Lucero’s status is clarified.
Mission and Vision
There is an immediate mission in the Asian Games since we are the defending champions. It’s challenging since we couldn’t field the Japan and Korea crew. It was also a waste to not have Ange Kouame and Brownlee together. It’s clear that FIBA was the priority, and the Asian Games was an afterthought.
It’s not impossible, and just like the 4th window, I’d be ecstatic to be proven wrong.
The long-term vision is the World Cup. Ideally, I’d have QMB, Mike Phillips, Boatwright, Ray Parks and Rhenz Abando as the five additions to the core. However, reality bites so we need the Asian Games to provide us with possible options.
