THE rate increase that the government granted to the Manila Electric Co. (Meralco), the utility giant that earned more than P51 billion last year, was announced at about the same time a survey revealed its heartbreaking findings: 55 percent of Filipino families — or 16.8 million — rated themselves as poor. That is, perhaps, the most embarrassing admission that humans could ever make. The same survey said 13.3 million families rated themselves as “food poor,” which, before the jargon of political correctness became vogue, actually meant millions of people regularly suffered from starvation.
In our country, such a juxtaposition — the cursed status of the poverty-stricken and starving masses against the extraordinary perks granted by state regulatory agencies to corporate fat cats — is commonplace, and no one in the power centers of jaded leaders seems to mind. Massive poverty, hunger and oligarchic power coexist, with no tug of conscience and sleepless nights for the political and economic elites.
This is an aside, but is important to point out. The same survey found that the massive concentration of both poverty and hunger is found in Mindanao, the political base and home region of Vice President Sara Duterte, who, in her impeachment trial, was alleged to have an unexplained wealth of between P817 million and P1.6 billion. Imagine, the multitudes of the poor and the hungry overwhelmingly supporting a politician accused of piling up immense, unexplained wealth. What a country.
Of the 16.8 million families who admitted to be poor, 2.2 million were “newly poor,” who, for one reason or another, slid into that often-dehumanizing status called poverty. “When in disgrace with fortune and men's eyes," the Bard wrote once.
There is also very little or zero chance the 11.7 million and 2.7 million families that rated themselves as “always poor” and “usually poor,” respectively, can write their up-from-the-bootstrap stories in the near or distant future. There is, historically, very little upward economic and social mobility in this country of ours. The 50 richest Filipinos listed by Forbes magazine have been uber rich for at least two generations; some have been ultra wealthy since the turn of the 20th century. The names on the Forbes list are locked in an apparent state of stasis: they never change except for one or two arrivistes.
Even the income distribution suggests there is hardly any chance those at the bottom would move upward in terms of economic mobility. The most recent World Bank study on Philippine income distribution said the top 1 percent captured the lion’s share of the national income while the bottom 50 percent had to settle for 14 percent.
Poverty tracker Oxfam Philippines had a grimmer study: the nine richest Filipinos hold more wealth than those at the bottom 50 percent, which translates to about 55 million poor and often hungry Filipinos.
The hard, hungry times are upon us and things may only get worse, not better. And what will add to our woes — and this is the greater tragedy — are things beyond our control, externalities beyond the policy intervention of the national government.
First is a war thousands of miles away that has led to the surge in the prices of oil distillates, such as diesel and gasoline, on which our critical sectors such as transport, power, factories, and farming are dependent on. That is because the Gulf area, where at least 2 million of our overseas workers are based, is the epicenter of that war, and workers’ remittances — a reliable economic lifeline — is likewise affected.
This year would probably post a very small increase in total remittances from Gulf-based Filipino workers, a break from the norm. The national government is also expected to spend a substantial amount to evacuate Filipino workers in war-affected Gulf areas, a drain on already scarce state funds.
As if the war in the Gulf were not enough, the decision of United States President Donald Trump to unsettle the otherwise seamless global trade via the imposition of punitive tariffs has been hurting both our exports and imports. The access to low-tariff goods needed for our critical economic sectors and intermediate goods for either assembly or manufacturing is now a thing of the past.
In this environment of war-induced disrupted trade, broken supply chains, and surging oil prices, the wrath of nature in the form of El Niño, the harshness of which was said to be last experienced in the late 19th century, is already hitting farming areas in the country. Parched farms with soil cracking under the sheer heat generated by El Niño have been reported in many areas in the country. It is doubly unfortunate that the Department of Agriculture (DA), which has the responsibility to prepare for the worst effects of El Niño, is headed by billionaire Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr., whose expertise is propaganda, not food production. Even without El Niño, the DA under Tiu Laurel has been bungling the core mandates of the agency, from rice production and meat supply to fish output.
The growth projection of just above 3 percent for the year — an insignificant one, given the smallness of our economic base — is mostly based on the effect of surging oil prices and Trump’s tariffs. It may be further dragged down by the impact of El Niño, which, without a doubt, will make the hunger problem worse.
The only silver lining is that we are a patient people. If not for that and our preternatural optimism, the twin conditions of massive poverty and hunger will push Filipinos to the streets, like what is taking place right now in France, India and Italy.
