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JOHOR BAHRU – A higher voter turnout is expected in the Johor state election (PRN), setting the stage for a more intense contest between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH).
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) political analyst Associate Professor Dr Mazlan Ali said based on his observations in Johor Bahru, political parties are now focusing their campaigns on fence-sitters, who are regarded as the deciding group as they typically make their voting decisions at the last minute.
According to him, voters who already lean towards a particular party appear to have made up their minds, with campaign efforts now centred on those who remain undecided.
"I happen to be in Johor Bahru and spent yesterday observing the current situation. Political parties are focusing particularly on fence-sitters because they are the group that will make their decisions at the last minute.
"Voters who have already decided which political party to support seem satisfied with their choice," he told Sinar at UTM on Friday.
Mazlan said recent trends indicate that more people are expected to turn out to vote.
He noted that the early voting turnout, which exceeded 90 per cent, suggested that voter turnout on Saturday could also be high.
"This will make the situation very interesting. The contest among political parties in this year's Johor state election is expected to be closely fought," he said.
Asked about his election forecast, Mazlan said BN still holds the advantage as the incumbent, particularly in Malay-majority constituencies.
He said this was partly due to Perikatan Nasional (PN) not fielding candidates in 23 seats, which is expected to make it easier for BN to retain those constituencies.
"However, if voter turnout is indeed high, there is a possibility that PH will pose a strong challenge to BN, especially in mixed, urban and semi-urban constituencies.
"When I say the contest will be intense, I am referring to the battle between BN and PH. The other parties appear to be less capable of mounting a serious challenge, particularly in terms of winning seats," he said.
Mazlan added that PN's prospects have also been affected by internal divisions within the coalition after Pas announced it would not campaign for Bersatu candidates.
"Although Pas and Bersatu remain under the PN coalition, Pas has said it will not support Bersatu. Naturally, Bersatu is likely to respond by withholding support for Pas candidates.
"That is why I see this election as essentially a contest between BN and PH," he said.
Mazlan said Chinese voters could influence the outcome after several organisations, including Dong Jiao Zong, urged the Chinese community to turn out in large numbers.
He said based on previous election trends, Chinese voters have generally been more inclined to support PH.
Nevertheless, he believes many of those who return to vote will be fence-sitters who will assess the performance of the Johor state government under caretaker Menteri Besar Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi.
"Onn Hafiz's administration has performed quite well and we have not seen many major issues.
"So, in terms of stability and service delivery, those factors may resonate with a large number of voters who return to cast their ballots," he said.
