Punjab’s monsoon story is not just about rainfall charts and crop calendars; it is about the lived experience of people whose health, livelihoods, and daily life are deeply intertwined with the climate.
The state’s inter-annual variability in rainfall is strongly influenced by the Southern Oscillation, a global climate phenomenon with two opposite phases: El Niño (the Little Boy) and La Niña (the Little Girl). These cycles, originating in the Pacific Ocean, ripple across continents and shape the strength and distribution of the Indian summer monsoon.
Explaining El Niño and La Niña
Kulwinder Kaur Gill, Principal Agrometeorologist at the Department of Climate Change and Agricultural Meteorology, Punjab Agricultural University (PAU), Ludhiana, explains these phenomena:
El Niño: A warm water current along Peru’s southern coast. In certain years, instead of cooling, the Pacific Ocean’s surface remains unusually warm. This disrupts trade winds, suppresses cloud formation over South Asia, and often leads to deficient rainfall. Fish production in Peru collapses, while halfway across the globe, Punjab’s farmers face drought.
La Niña: The opposite phase. Stronger-than-usual trade winds push warm waters westward, intensifying rainfall over Asia. For Punjab, this can mean surplus rainfall, sometimes even floods.
The relationship is not always straightforward. Regional climatic factors, atmospheric caps, soil moisture, and Himalayan influences complicate the picture. Yet, the broad trend remains: El Niño years tilt toward drought, La Niña years toward excess rain.
Experts caution that climate change is acting as a “force multiplier.” The traditional rhythm of highs and lows is becoming more erratic, with sharper extremes.
Prabhjyot Kaur, Principal Scientist (Agrometeorology), adds, “Our farmers cannot control the Pacific, but they can prepare their fields. Adaptation is the only way forward.”
Punjab’s rainfall trends
Average annual rainfall: 500 mm
Drought year: Rainfall deficit, less than 19%
Flood year: Rainfall surplus, more than 19%
Recent extremes:
2014: 49% below normal (worst drought year)
2012: 46% below normal
2008: 20% above normal (surplus year)
2025: 41% above normal (La Niña year, record-breaking rainfall)
In the past 25 years:
13 drought years, 8 linked to El Niño
Only 3 excess rainfall years tied to La Niña
This imbalance shows Punjab is more vulnerable to drought than floods, though both are intensifying.
Climate change as a force multiplier
The modern era has sharpened extremes:
Highs: 41% surplus in 2025
Lows: 49% deficit in 2014
The “normal” monsoon of 500 mm is becoming rare. Instead, Punjab faces cycles of climate extremes that disrupt traditional farming calendars. With 2026 predicted as an El Niño year, experts warn of a high probability of deficient rainfall. Farmers may lean more heavily on groundwater, further straining aquifers already depleted by decades of paddy cultivation, says Harleen Kaur, Assistant Professor (Agricultural Meteorology), PAU.
Impact on crops
Soil moisture stress: Higher temperatures dry soils faster.
Crop choices: Shift to short-duration, drought-tolerant crops like millets (sorghum, bajra), pulses (pigeon pea, green gram), and oilseeds.
Irrigation practices: Transition from flood irrigation to drip/sprinkler systems, cutting water use by 30–50%. Irrigate at night or early morning to reduce evaporation.
Intercropping: Growing maize + pigeon pea together ensures income security.
Mulching: Cover soil with straw or plastic sheets to conserve moisture.
Fertilizer management: Avoid high urea doses; prefer foliar sprays (2% KCl). Increase organic manure to boost water-holding capacity.
Impact on livestock
Fodder storage: Harvest and store dry fodder early.
Silage preparation: Preserve excess green forage for lean months.
Mineral supplements: Add mineral bricks to cattle sheds to maintain immunity.
Heat stress management: Provide shade, cool water, and ventilation during heat waves.
Livestock are as vulnerable as crops. Heat waves reduce milk yield, weaken immunity, and increase disease outbreaks.
Impact on people’s health
Monsoon variability affects human health directly and indirectly:
Heat waves: El Niño years bring prolonged heat, increasing cases of dehydration, heatstroke, and respiratory stress.
Vector-borne diseases: La Niña floods create breeding grounds for mosquitoes, raising risks of malaria and dengue.
Respiratory issues: Dust storms and dry spells worsen asthma and bronchitis.
Waterborne diseases: Floods contaminate drinking water, spreading diarrhoeal diseases.
Incidence of El Niño & La Niña years in past 25 years in Punjab
2002 – 363.8 mm — El Niño year
2004 – 280.4 mm — El Niño year
2007 – 340.4 mm — El Niño year
2009 – 326.6 mm — El Niño year
2014 – 244.7 mm — El Niño year
2016 – 353.9 mm — El Niño year
2023 – 416.3 mm — El Niño year
2024 – 317.3 mm — El Niño year
2008 – 603.7 mm — La Niña year
2018 – 590.3 mm — La Niña year
2025 – 620.9 mm — La Niña year
Image credit: Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana
