ILHAM Centre survey finds Malay-Muslim identity politics dominates N9 polls, hurting PH support
PETALING JAYA: ILHAM Centre has projected that Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN), contesting under a loose cooperation formula, could jointly capture 22 state seats in the Negeri Sembilan election, forming a stable majority bloc, while Pakatan Harapan (PH) is projected to secure a minimum of nine seats.
Five seats Chennah, Linggi, Nilai, Repah and Temiang were identified as too close to call, with the research house noting that a strong BN showing in these constituencies could hand the BN-PN alliance a two-thirds majority in the state assembly.
The projection is based on fieldwork conducted between July 18 and July 30, involving 1,002 quantitative respondents, six focus group discussions (28 informants) and 38 in-depth interviews across all 36 state constituencies, with a reported margin of error of 3.1% at a 95% confidence level.
According to ILHAM Centre, Malay-Muslim identity politics has re-emerged as the dominant factor shaping voter behaviour this election, with campaigning shifting away from administrative track record towards questions of religion, Malay standing and political power. Unlike GE15 and the 2023 state polls when such narratives were driven mainly by PN, the centre said this year’s messaging was shared jointly by BN and PN supporters, producing a more consistent message that accelerated grassroots consolidation.
The report described this wave as more organised than a similar dynamic observed in the recent Johor state election, with vote transfers between BN and PN supporters occurring more effectively than expected, albeit asymmetrically: around 92% of PN supporters reportedly transferred votes to BN in BN-contested seats, compared to about 75% of BN supporters doing likewise in PN-contested seats. Despite this gap, ILHAM Centre estimated PH secured only around 18% support among Malay voters overall.
The centre said PH’s campaign, anchored on Mentri Besar Aminuddin Harun’s record, struggled after the party’s Johor defeat left its machinery with low morale. Its second phase pivoted to controversial remarks attributed to Kedah Mentri Besar Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor and the Tabung Haji Royal Commission of Inquiry findings, but ILHAM Centre said neither issue significantly dented the identity-driven momentum built by BN-PN, attributing this partly to PH’s communication strategy rather than the issues themselves.
Chinese voter support for PH, the study found, was no longer automatic, with continued backing driven more by an absence of credible alternatives than genuine confidence in government performance linked to frustrations over taxation, subsidy adjustments, e-invoicing and the pace of institutional reform.
While Aminuddin maintained a high personal approval rating of around 75%, ILHAM Centre said this failed to translate into broader PH support, partly because his contest in the more competitive Linggi seat after moving from Sikamat limited his ability to campaign across marginal constituencies.
The report also highlighted a generational shift, noting young voters make up an average 48% of the state’s electorate, rising above 50% in 15 constituencies, with decisions increasingly shaped by party branding and social media narratives rather than candidate familiarity. Separately, the centre identified a drift among Indian voters traditionally strong PH supporters over grievances including vehicle enforcement, temple-related administrative issues, and policy sensitivity, a shift it said could affect several seats with sizeable Indian electorates.
