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SHAH ALAM – Chinese voter turnout is expected to be the deciding factor for Pakatan Harapan (PH) in the Johor state election as dissatisfaction with the coalition’s performance has led to a subdued campaign atmosphere.
Ilham Centre said the sentiment did not indicate a significant shift in support towards Barisan Nasional (BN), but instead reflected a growing tendency among Chinese voters to stay away from the polls.
It said although many Chinese voters still regarded PH as the coalition that best aligned with their political preferences, enthusiasm to return to the ballot box remained significantly lower than during the 15th General Election (GE15).
“This explains why Chinese voter turnout has become the most critical variable in determining the outcome in urban and semi-urban constituencies.
“Ilham Centre’s findings show that PH needs a voter turnout of at least 65 per cent to maintain its advantage in these seats.
“If turnout falls below expectations, several seats previously considered safe could become closely contested or even swing to BN,” the statement said on Friday.
Ilham Centre said the contest between BN and PH in the Johor state election was taking place on different battlegrounds, with BN enjoying an advantage in Malay-majority constituencies.
“It said PH, meanwhile, was relying on its strength in Chinese-majority, urban and semi-urban constituencies with a high concentration of voters.
“For BN, stable support from Malay voters forms the foundation of its electoral strength, while for PH, the key question is whether it can mobilise its traditional supporters to cast their ballots,” it said.
The statement said field research in Malay-majority constituencies found that support from Pas voters had become one of the factors strengthening BN’s position in many seats.
“Following changes within the opposition bloc, some Pas supporters no longer viewed Perikatan Nasional (PN) as a coalition with realistic prospects of victory.
“This has resulted in tactical support shifting towards BN in several constituencies that were previously the focus of intense three-cornered contests, further strengthening BN’s position among Malay voters,” it said.
Meanwhile, Ilham Centre said it would be inaccurate to assume that the results of the general election would automatically be repeated in the Johor state election.
“This is because state elections produce different voting patterns, particularly among Chinese voters.
“Without voter enthusiasm, major issues or a national wave capable of driving supporters to the polls, PH is expected to face difficulties replicating its performance in GE15,” it said.
