PHILIPPINE shares could remain under pressure this week after the benchmark index extended its losing streak to five sessions and fell to another 2026 low, with investors turning their attention to September inflation for clues on the path of interest rates.
The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) slipped by 0.45 points or 0.01 percent to 5,629.03 on Friday, bringing its weekly decline to 196.94 points or 3.4 percent.
The Philippine Statistics Authority is scheduled to release September inflation data on Tuesday, with 2TradeAsia.com expecting headline inflation to accelerate to 6.6 percent to 7.0 percent from 6.1 percent in August.
The brokerage said a reading of 6.8 percent would make a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ Oct. 22 meeting “very likely.”
“A Tuesday inflation print at or below 6.5 percent is a tradable relief bounce toward 5,800, while 6.8 percent or higher cements the Oct. 22 hike and puts 5,500 in play,” 2TradeAsia said.
Philstocks Financial Inc. research manager Japhet Tantiangco likewise said inflation would be the key focus for investors this week, with expectations for a faster September print likely to weigh further on sentiment.
“If inflation comes in significantly faster, it may further drag the local market,” he said.
The market has been weighed down by elevated oil prices and Treasury yields, a weak peso and renewed inflation concerns, while growth forecast downgrades and a contraction in the country’s manufacturing sector have added to concerns over the economic outlook.
Tantiangco said the PSEi continues to exhibit a bearish bias amid lingering macroeconomic headwinds and a lack of positive catalysts, although bargain hunting could trigger a technical bounce.
“Taking all of these into consideration, investors are advised to remain cautious,” he said.
Liquidity could provide another headwind for equities, with 2TradeAsia noting that the Retail Treasury Bond 32 offering attracted nearly P190 billion in tenders against a P30-billion offer at a 6.875-percent coupon.
The initial public offering of GCash operator Mynt, meanwhile, is scheduled to run from Oct. 6 to 12 and could further compete for investor funds. 2TradeAsia said the IPO’s P6.60 pricing, below the earlier P7 to P10 indication, also pointed to tougher pricing conditions for new listings through the fourth quarter.
“Defensive positioning maintained. Large caps, infra-related plays and dollar earners remain the better vehicles while the market waits out upcoming listings,” it said.
