INVESTOR caution ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting and the release of domestic growth data for 2025 could keep the market rangebound, an analyst said.
The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange composite index (PSEi) ended Friday down 2.03 percent week on week at 6,333.26. It remained positive year to date, up 4.63 percent since trading resumed after the New Year holidays.
The US central bank will hold its first policy meeting for 2026 from Jan. 27-28 and is widely expected to pause from further rate cuts with inflation still above target.
Locally, preliminary fourth quarter and full-year economic growth data for 2025 will be released on Jan. 29, with farm output results to come a day earlier.
Trade data for December, meanwhile, will be issued on Jan. 27 and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will also release its January inflation estimate this Friday.
RCBC chief economist Michael Ricafort said the PSEi was likely to consolidate amid profit-taking and cautious foreign flows, with investors awaiting fresh catalysts from the upcoming data releases and global developments.
He said that a supportive global backdrop could help emerging market equities, including the PSEi, provided geopolitical risks such as the US-Iran tensions and unresolved Russia-Ukraine negotiations do not escalate.
Prospects of continued BSP easing are also expected to keep buoying the market, with Ricafort noting that it would lower costs for business and keep inflation under control.
BSP Governor Eli Remolona Jr. told reporters on Friday that weaker-than-expected fourth quarter growth could lead to another rate reduction.
“If it (growth) would turn out to be weaker than expected, it would help us decide to cut,” he said.