This year's World Cup is shattering betting records, with sportsbook operators attributing the unprecedented wagering to a perfect storm of factors. The tournament's North American setting allows U.S. audiences to watch games live during convenient hours, while a historically talented American team has exceeded expectations by winning its first two matches and topping its group.
"I think it has exceeded our expectations," stated Mark Bickerdike, Caesars Sportsbook’s head of soccer trading, regarding the volume of money being wagered. Johnny Avello, director at DraftKings Sportsbook, noted that betting on the 48-team World Cup, which recently entered its knockout stage, is rivaling the popularity of college basketball's NCAA Tournament.
"It could be the biggest event of the year when it’s all said and done," Avello predicted. "March Madness takes place over the course of three weeks, and it rakes quite a bit of money. This is getting there. It blows the Super Bowl away. One game, one day. This thing here is way bigger than that."
The surge in interest is particularly pronounced for the US team. Christian Cipollini, BetMGM Sportsbook’s trading manager, anticipates their upcoming single-elimination match against Bosnia-Herzegovina in Santa Clara, California, will be "BetMGM’s most bet-on soccer game of all time." He added, "In this World Cup, all three of our most bet-on games have been the three USA games. This game is leading up to be a perfect storm where the USA looks very good. There’s a lot of hype around the team."
While Kylian Mbappé’s France is widely favored to win the tournament, with Lionel Messi’s defending champion Argentina close behind, handicapper Bruce Marshall cautions against assuming a final rematch. "I could see seven or eight teams winning this thing," Marshall remarked, suggesting that "any favorite at this stage, I don’t know that there’s great value there."
Bettors, however, are also drawn to long shots. Avello highlighted the significant liability these small wagers on unlikely teams can create for sportsbooks. Marshall pointed to Colombia (33-1 at BetMGM) and Switzerland (66-1) as teams offering strong value. He praised Colombia's dangerous play and support, and Switzerland's "club side" familiarity, noting, "Switzerland’s got guys who’ve played 80, 100 games together."
Paradoxically, a US victory would likely spell financial pain for sportsbooks. The American team's odds have dramatically shortened from 50-1 to 25-1 at BetMGM, 30-1 at Caesars, and 33-1 at DraftKings. Cipollini explained, "If the U.S. would’ve limped into the knockout round, our liability probably wouldn’t be as high as it is. But the fact that they’ve looked good, there’s a lot of people that are, ‘They do have a chance.’ It’s on home soil. It’s easy to talk yourself into something we all kind of want to happen."
Adding a quirky dimension to the betting landscape, a 1997 episode of "The Simpsons" depicting a match between Mexico and Portugal has spurred an unexpected uptick in wagers on that specific pairing, despite the episode not mentioning the World Cup or the year 2026. "We have got a liability on that," Bickerdike confirmed, underscoring the diverse and sometimes unusual motivations driving this record-breaking World Cup betting frenzy.
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