On an election night that could have marked the end of his political career, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared before supporters at 3 a.m. and went straight on the attack. He spoke about Israel's military operation that killed Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, about his friendship with US President Donald Trump, and about Israel's occupation of parts of Lebanon, Syria and Gaza. Then he turned on the enemy he knows best: the media.
"Do you remember how the propaganda channels built up the idea that Likud would only get 18 or 19 seats? They knew all along it was a lie!" he said.
With counting of regular ballots complete, Netanyahu's Likud is expected to win 26 seats in the 120 member Knesset, again making it the largest party in parliament. His right wing coalition falls short of the 61 seats needed to govern, but the opposition has failed to win a majority as well.
Where The Count Stands
According to the Central Elections Committee count reported by The Jerusalem Post on October 29, with about 93% of votes counted, Netanyahu's bloc holds 53 seats: Likud 26, United Torah Judaism 7, Shas 7, Otzma Yehudit 7 and the Religious Zionist Party 6. The opposition bloc holds 48: former military chief Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar 21, Naftali Bennett's Together 12, Yair Golan's Democrats 8 and Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beytenu 7. Arab led parties won 19 seats, 11 for the Joint List and 8 for Ra'am, leaving them as potential kingmakers.
Official results are due to be certified on November 4. President Isaac Herzog will then consult the parties before giving the mandate to the lawmaker most likely to form a majority, who will have 28 days, extendable by 14, to do so, Al Jazeera reported. "We must do everything, certainly after yesterday, to avoid another round of elections," Herzog said.
Likud has meanwhile claimed the election was "stolen by Arab parties" and demanded an investigation into alleged fraud, The Jewish Chronicle reported. An election committee official denied claims of widespread fraud, and no evidence has been made public.
Until a new government is formed, Netanyahu remains prime minister, with another chance to use his skill at back room dealmaking to win over parties that seem unlikely partners.
The Power Of Storytelling
After six terms and 19 years in power, more than half of Israelis, and many observers abroad, are asking the same question: how does Netanyahu keep surviving?
Aviv Bushinsky, who served for years as Netanyahu's spokesman and chief of staff, has an answer. "One of his gifts is that Netanyahu is a very good storyteller," he said. "The story he tells successfully shifts the whole discussion from the past to the future."
In Netanyahu's telling, the string of failures by his government during Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack has been folded into what he calls the "War of Redemption," his framing for Israel's wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.
The message he wants to send, Bushinsky said, is that "everyone else is either too weak, or inexperienced, incapable, and simply lacks the guts."
His survival after one of the most contentious elections in Israel's history comes despite obstacles that might have sunk other politicians. The opposition recounts his failures almost daily. The October 7 attack killed about 1,200 people in Israel, the deadliest single day for Jews since the Holocaust. The hostage crisis that followed threw the country into turmoil, with hundreds of thousands taking to the streets to demand a ceasefire.
The wars that followed interrupted Netanyahu's corruption trial but did not end it. Meanwhile, Israel's devastating military campaign in Gaza has killed at least 73,000 Palestinians and left Israel deeply isolated internationally.
Netanyahu faces an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court over alleged war crimes, which sharply limits where he can travel, and Israel faces genocide proceedings at the International Court of Justice over Gaza. Netanyahu and the Israeli government deny the accusations and have dismissed them as antisemitic.
At home, some Israelis loathe him, seeing him as corrupt and a threat to the country's democracy. His many rivals formed an opposition team that brought together political newcomers, a battle hardened former military chief and veteran politicians in a bid to topple him. But the latest results suggest they fell short, with Likud still the largest party and Netanyahu still in contention for another term.
"Given the cards he held before the election, this is a pretty good result for him," said Roni Rimon, who ran Netanyahu's 2009 campaign. Netanyahu did not win the election, but neither did his rivals. Jewish opposition parties would first have to overcome Netanyahu's long running portrayal of Israel's Palestinian minority as traitors to the Jewish state before they could work with Arab parties.
And those Arab parties hold just enough seats to decide whether a new government can be formed, or to block either side from taking power.
Changing Roles To Survive
Comebacks from political adversity have long been part of Netanyahu's public image.
Over a 40 year public career, he has adjusted his role to fit each challenge, sometimes conciliatory, sometimes combative. When needed, he can be the triumphant leader or the underdog fighting powerful enemies. "He becomes whoever he needs to be in the moment," said a person who once campaigned with him. "And he is so persuasive that he even believes it himself."
His political story is also rooted in personal experience. As a young soldier, he was shot during one military operation, nearly froze to death in another, and lost his older brother in a hostage rescue mission. He has turned those experiences into stories of courage and sacrifice that form a core part of his political image.
Early in his career, Netanyahu was accused by the widow of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and others of fueling the political climate that led to Rabin's assassination. Rabin had been pushing the Oslo Accords, which sought to open a path to peace between Israelis and Palestinians. Netanyahu deflected the criticism, and as with the criticism he faces today, he never admitted fault or accepted responsibility.
Soon after, he defeated Rabin's successor Shimon Peres to become prime minister for the first time. That 1996 victory was the first display of his talent for political communication: boiling down highly complex issues into catchy slogans that resonate with voters.
Turning Complex Issues Into Simple Slogans
At the time, Washington was pressing Israel to make concessions on Palestinian statehood. Netanyahu campaigned on the slogan "Peres will divide Jerusalem" and won by a narrow margin.
In 2019, his slogan was "Bibi or Tibi." Bibi is Netanyahu's own nickname, while Tibi refers to Ahmad Tibi, a Palestinian citizen of Israel and veteran lawmaker. The line quickly cast Tibi as a political threat while presenting Netanyahu as the safe choice.
This year his slogan was even simpler: "Yamin o Falestin," meaning "Right or Palestine." The secret to Netanyahu's messaging, Bushinsky said, is to make it as simple as possible.
Israel's Political Escape Artist
Since returning to power in 2009, Netanyahu has dominated Israeli politics. A series of elections that ended in parliamentary deadlock briefly pushed him into opposition, but he soon regained power. Surviving almost nonstop political crises and controversies has earned him several nicknames.
Israeli newspapers have sometimes called him "the magician," and others have compared him to the escape artist Harry Houdini. Houdini, however, died after letting his guard down and allowing a friendly challenger to punch him in the stomach. Bushinsky does not think Netanyahu will make the same mistake. "You will never catch Netanyahu off guard," he said.
