Anxious Israelis watched as election results took shape on Wednesday after a record turnout vote delivered a rebuke to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ’s far-right government. Exit polls suggested no clear winner and that weeks of negotiating could lie ahead.
The exit polls suggested that opponents of the government had a solid majority in the next parliament. But it’s not clear if those parties — which include Arab-led factions that appear to have made a historic showing — are willing to form a coalition.
Netanyahu was defiant early Wednesday, trying to position himself to remain the country's longest-serving prime minister and praising Israel’s military achievements of the past three years. He dismissed the idea of a partnership with Arab parties — whose constituents make up 20% of Israel’s population — as treasonous.
“We must establish a strong, right-wing, nationalist government,” said Netanyahu, who faced a strong challenge from his former military chief, centrist Gadi Eisenkot. “We must not endanger Israel and establish a government that relies on anti-Zionist Arab parties.”
Eisenkot has left the door open to partnering with Arab parties under certain conditions, but some of his other likely partners have ruled it out.
The close results suggest that Netanyahu’s opponents were unable to capitalize — as hoped — on the anger and grief sparked by the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, attack that triggered three years of war to decisively unseat him.
One clear loser from Tuesday's election was far-right national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who for many Israelis represented the worst strain of Netanyahu’s government, openly taunting Palestinian detainees and asserting that many in Gaza are “not even people.”
Netanyahu faces a setback but not outright defeat
Israel’s leader appeared to have been rebuked by voters disappointed in his alliance with the far-right and angry over draft exemptions for the significant ultra-Orthodox Jewish population.
Exit polls by major Israeli TV stations suggested Netanyahu’s governing coalition shrank, with his Likud party dropping from 32 seats to around 27. But it would remain the largest party and best placed to be asked to form a government by Israel’s president, Isaac Herzog.
Final voting results are expected in the coming days, including from hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots yet to be counted.
The exit polls suggested that Netanyahu’s bloc and Eisenkot’s each won about 51 seats, and Arab parties won about 18. That sets the stage for weeks of political negotiating before a prime minister is declared — or another round of elections is called.
The easiest path to a parliamentary majority would involve Eisenkot partnering with Arab-led parties, but that could prove politically difficult and potentially alienate other opposition factions.
In a speech early Wednesday that focused on national unity, Eisenkot pledged to form a government and promised “a new era — an era of hope."
Arab-led parties could hold the key
Israel’s Arab citizens, the descendants of Palestinians who remained in the state after its creation in 1948, hold senior jobs in many sectors but face discrimination and are often viewed with wariness because of their solidarity with the Palestinian cause. That suspicion intensified after Oct. 7.
Netanyahu had warned that Arab parties could make or break the election, saying they were heading to the polls in “unprecedented numbers.”
The mood was joyful at the headquarters of the United Arab List, the lone Arab party to ever join a governing coalition, briefly, in 2021.
“We are here, we are not on the sidelines,” party leader Mansour Abbas told supporters.
The race was widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu’s nearly unbroken 17-year rule, which had left Israelis divided even before the deadliest attack in the country’s history. The resulting wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, along with settler violence in the occupied West Bank, have stoked worldwide outrage, straining ties with Israel’s closest allies and fueling a rise in antisemitism.
Coalition-building could take weeks
Israel’s president will be tasked with asking the party leader with the best prospect of forming a government, usually one with the most seats, to put together a majority coalition.
If no one can do that, new elections could be held early next year. Israel held five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 because of a similar stalemate.
No single party has ever won an outright majority in the country’s 120-seat parliament, the Knesset. Minority governments are also possible, but they must rely on support or cooperation from parties outside the government to pass legislation.
Netanyahu’s supporters see him as someone who led Israel through a war of redemption. They think he is protecting Israel’s security and Jewish identity in the face of international pressure and liberal elites at home.
His detractors say that Netanyahu, beset by an ongoing corruption trial, dragged out the war in Gaza and its hostage crisis for political reasons. They say he is undermining Israel’s independent judiciary and weakening its democratic underpinnings. And they accuse his government of allowing ultra-Orthodox religious Jews to avoid military conscription.
Eisenkot is viewed by supporters as a capable leader with sterling security credentials who could act against creeping illiberalism. His son and two nephews were killed in Gaza, and his backers believe that he feels deeply the pain that still courses through Israel.
Parties that likely would support Eisenkot have vowed to improve Israel’s international standing and work to conscript ultra-Orthodox men while bolstering the independence of the judiciary.
Israel has found itself increasingly isolated over its conduct in Gaza and the West Bank. Public support among Americans has plummeted, and partners in Europe and elsewhere have slapped sanctions on Israel. Netanyahu faces an international arrest warrant over alleged crimes against humanity in Gaza, allegations he denies.
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Associated Press writers across Israel contributed to this report.
