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SHAH ALAM - Barisan Nasional (BN) enters the final stretch of the Johor state election campaign as the frontrunner, but the race remains highly competitive, with 31 constituencies still too close to call and nearly one in three voters yet to firmly decide their choice.
According to Vodus Research’s latest Johor 2026 State Election Forecast, BN is projected to secure 36 per cent of the likely vote, ahead of Pakatan Harapan (PH) at 26 per cent and Perikatan Nasional (PN) at 15 per cent.
However, despite BN’s clear advantage, the sizeable proportion of undecided and soft voters means the outcome remains fluid, with many constituencies still up for grabs ahead of polling day.
The forecast is based on a survey conducted between June 15 and 29 involving 1,303 registered voters across Johor.
Seat-level projections show BN currently leading in 20 constituencies, comprising 17 safe seats and three marginal seats. PH leads in one marginal constituency, while PN is ahead in three marginal seats.
However, 14 constituencies remain closely contested between BN and PH, while another 17 seats have yet to be called, leaving considerable uncertainty over the final electoral outcome.
The survey also found that Johor caretaker Menteri Besar Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi remains the state's most popular political leader, recording a favourability rating of 58 per cent.
At the party level, BN registered the highest favourability rating at 53 per cent, followed by PH at 46 per cent and PN at 44 per cent.
Public confidence in the BN-led Johor administration also remained strong. Trust in the state leadership stood at 67 per cent, while trust in BN as a political coalition reached 68 per cent. Both recorded identical distrust levels of 18 per cent.
Despite BN's lead, the survey suggests that voter certainty remains a key variable that could influence the final outcome.
Overall turnout intention appears high, with 87 per cent of respondents indicating they are either likely or very likely to cast their ballots.
However, only 69 per cent said they were certain about their current voting choice, meaning nearly one in three voters, or 31 per cent, could still switch their support before polling day.
Among supporters of the three major coalitions, PN recorded the highest level of voter certainty at 78 per cent, followed by BN at 74 per cent and PH at 72 per cent.
The uncertainty is even more pronounced among respondents who declined to disclose their preferred party. Only 37 per cent of this group described themselves as firm in their voting decision, while 63 per cent said they remained open to changing their minds.
Similarly, among voters who identified themselves as undecided, 85 per cent had yet to settle on a preferred political party.
Commenting on the findings, Vodus Research founder Dr Kelvin Goh said overall vote share alone does not provide a complete picture of the electoral contest.
“The overall vote share only told part of the story. In closely contested constituencies, even relatively small shifts among soft and non-disclosing voters could still reshape the final seat map,” he said.
The survey also highlighted that cost of living remains the dominant issue influencing voters across the state.
More than half of respondents, or 53 per cent, listed cost of living among their three biggest concerns, while 31 per cent identified it as the single most important issue affecting their voting decision.
The issue ranked consistently as the top concern regardless of respondents' political affiliation, reflecting broad public concern over household expenses and economic pressures.
Overall, the findings suggest BN heads into the final phase of campaigning from a position of strength.
Nevertheless, with dozens of closely fought constituencies and a substantial bloc of persuadable voters still in play, the survey indicates that the Johor state election remains highly competitive and the final seat distribution is far from settled.
