Sir Keir Starmer is still facing the prospect of a major rebellion over his welfare cuts after warnings from Labour MPs that the government’s concessions do not go far enough.
The bill, which would see changes made to personal independence payment (Pip) and the health-related element of universal credit, is due to go to a crunch vote later on Tuesday.
With the prime minister’s authority on the line, work and pensions secretary Liz Kendall confirmed a number of concessions to cuts on Monday in an effort to head off a major rebellion by Labour backbenchers.
However, a key architect of the rebellion has said the government’s concessions do not go far enough ahead of the vote, warning that a significant number of MPs could still oppose the plans.
Debbie Abrahams, who was part of the team negotiating with Downing Street last week, told ITV she "implores the government to think again".
“We absolutely recognise these are good concessions but we’re not quite there yet,” she added.
MPs will debate the bill in the Commons from lunchtime before a vote is expected at 7pm.
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Key Points
- Crunch vote on welfare reforms today
- Key architect of welfare rebellion says government concessions don't go far enough
- Starmer’s benefit cuts still push 150,000 into poverty, government admits
- Changes to welfare bill announced
- How many Labour MPs could rebel?
What's happening in the Commons today?
08:52
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Athena Stavrou
11:30am: The chancellor will face questions from MPs, including some on the welfare reforms.
12:40pm: MPs will begin the debate on the government’s welfare bill. There have been a number of tabled amendments attempting to kill the reforms.
7pm: A vote is expected on the welfare bill.
Labour MP: So many more rebels prepared to vote down bill
08:39
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Athena Stavrou
The Independent’s political correspondent Archie Mitchell reports:
A leading Labour rebel has said there are “so many more” MPs prepared to vote down Sir Keir Starmer’s benefit cuts than those publicly signed up to her wrecking amendment.
Rachael Maskell, a long-standing critic of the government, has tabled a new amendment that would kill the welfare reforms if backed by the Commons on Tuesday.
It has 39 Labour signatures so far (see post at 8:21am), but, speaking to the BBC on Tuesday, she said: “There are many people who have said they are done with reasoned amendments and are going to come in and vote down that bill.
“So many more people say this is not the right thing to do, it is not a Labour thing to do.”
Ms Maskell said there are “loads more” people opposing the government than have signed up for her amendment.
“I engaged with so many people yesterday who said I am not signing your reasoned amendment, but I am voting down the bill,” she insisted.
Exclusive: Trans charity demands investigation into EHRC following Supreme Court ruling on gender
08:37
,
Athena Stavrou
How many Labour MPs could rebel?
08:21
,
Athena Stavrou
The government will be working all day to try and minimise the rebellion against its welfare reforms.
However, dozens of Labour MPs are still likely to vote against its benefit cut bill.
While the exact numbers are unknown, a “wrecking amendment” outlined in Tuesday’s parliamentary order paper has been signed by 39 Labour MPs.
The amendment was put forward by York Central MP Rachael Maskell.
The 39 Labour signatories is far fewer than the 83 needed to overturn Sir Keir’s majority, but enough to deliver the largest rebellion of his premiership just before the first anniversary of Labour’s election victory.
It is a considerably lower number than the 127 who signed an amendment last week that would have stopped the bill’s progress entirely.
This lowers to around 50 following concessions made by the government.
Minister urges Labour MPs to back bill
08:12
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Athena Stavrou
Jonathan Reynolds urged Labour MPs to back welfare reforms amid a looming rebellion, insisting the Government is in a “stronger position” than it was last week after making concessions over its plans.
Asked what the consequences would be for backbenchers rejecting the Bill, the Business Secretary told Sky News there had been a “positive conversation with colleagues about what they want from this process”.
He said everyone wants the most vulnerable to be protected and “I think we have worked with people in order to provide that”.
“I’d ask them to support the Government on that basis, because clearly what we’ve got here is something which is better than the existing system,” he said.
Asked whether MPs would lose the whip for voting against the Government, he said he was “not aware of anything like that” but “those issues are for the chief whip”.
Government accused of creating 'tiered welfare system'
07:54
,
Athena Stavrou
The government is facing accusations that their new welfare reforms will create a tiered system among the disabled community.
In the Commons yesterday, welfare and pensions minister Liz Kendall was asked a number of times whether the reforms would create a “two-tiered system”.
The changes would see existing claimants continue to receive their current allowance, while new claimants would be subject to the tighter eligibility.
Meanwhile, a Government review taking the views of disabled people into account will launch, with the possibility of further changes as a result of its proposals.
Jonathan Reynolds has rejected suggestions Government welfare reforms would create a “three-tier” system, saying it is “entirely normal” for existing entitlements to be “grandfathered”.
Asked about the suggestions, the Business Secretary told Sky News: “I’ve seen these claims, I don’t accept this.
“It’s entirely normal for when we have significant changes to the welfare state, existing entitlements to be grandfathered.
“There are people in the UK getting severe disablement allowance. That closed to new entrants in 2001. So this is quite common.”
'We have to confront difficult issues': Minister
07:42
,
Athena Stavrou
Jonathan Reynolds said the Government’s welfare proposals are “far better than what we have at the minute”.
The Business Secretary told Times Radio: “I think first of all we have to confront difficult issues, that’s part of what this Government was elected to do.
“I do agree this is a difficult issue but I think if you avoid difficult issues you end up in a much worse position. We’ve seen this incredible rise in the money we spend on Pip – it’s doubled in five years. I don’t think that’s substantially reduced poverty, by the way.”
He added: “If you look at where we are today we have a set of proposals which are far better than what we have at the minute, have genuine co-production at the heart of that in terms of the Timms review that’s going to take this forward and some really important things.
“We’ve protected the most vulnerable people through not having people with severe health conditions reassessed, having a right to try, reforming access to work for disabled people.
“This overall package is better and does make sure we’re spending money in the right way.”
Starmer’s benefit cuts still push 150,000 into poverty, government admits
07:27
,
Athena Stavrou
One of the major reasons some Labour MPs will be rebelling against the bill is due to the government’s own assessment on how it will impact poverty in the UK.
Around 150,000 people will be pushed into poverty by 2030 as a result of the Government’s welfare cuts - despite the bill being softened.
The figure is down from the 250,000 extra people estimated to have been left in relative poverty after housing costs under the original proposals.
Modelling published by the Department for Work and Pensions said the estimate does not include any “potential positive impact” from extra funding and measures to support people with disabilities and long-term health conditions into work.
Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall announced last week that changes to the personal independence payment (Pip) will only apply to new claimants from November 2026, and ministers also rowed back on plans to cut the health-related element of Universal Credit after 126 Labour MPs signed an amendment that would have effectively killed the Government’s Bill.
Crunch vote on welfare reforms today
07:00
,
Jabed Ahmed
Good morning,
Keir Starmer is still facing a damaging rebellion after ministers admitted that 150,000 people will still be pushed into poverty by benefits reforms.
With the prime minister’s authority on the line, his work and pensions secretary Liz Kendall unveiled amended benefits reforms yesterday in a bid to persuade Labour backbenchers not to vote down the bill.
More than 130 Labour backbenchers had signed an amendment that would have effectively killed the legislation – but ministers were hoping a last-minute pledge to protect current personal independence payments (Pip) and other changes would end the rebellion.
The crunch vote will take place later today.
Follow The Independent’s live blog for the latest updates.
Full story: Welfare reforms could push 150,000 into poverty, official modelling suggests
06:01
,
Jabed Ahmed
Changes to welfare bill announced
05:00
,
Jabed Ahmed
The work and pensions secretary is hoping the changes will quell a Labour rebellion. Here are the concessions she has announced:
- Confirming no existing claimants of personal independence payments (Pip) or the health-related element of universal credit will lost them
- Publishing terms of the review into Pip.
- Investing £300m of employment support for disabled people.
- Ensuring benefits rise in line with inflation.
Voices | Starmer’s welfare U-turn means he is now following his party, not leading it
04:00
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Jabed Ahmed
MS Society urges MPs to reject welfare reforms
02:00
,
Jabed Ahmed
Charlotte Gill, of the MS Society, has criticised the government's welfare reform bill ahead of tomorrow's Commons vote.
She said: “We’re appalled that the government are choosing to rush through this reckless and harmful bill. It’s outrageous that MPs are being asked to vote for dramatic welfare changes, without having time to properly scrutinise their impact. By the government’s own admission these catastrophic cuts will still push at least 150,000 more people into poverty.”
Ms Gill added that personal independence payment (Pip) is essential for many people living with multiple sclerosis.
“MS is a debilitating, exhausting and unpredictable condition which gets worse over time. Pip is a lifeline not a luxury for many people with MS,” she said.
“We all need reassurance that this vital support will be there for us whether we need it today, tomorrow or in a couple of years. We urge MPs to use their power to prevent a disaster. The only way to protect disability benefits is to halt this bill immediately.”
Key architect of welfare rebellion says government concessions don't go far enough
01:00
,
Jabed Ahmed
A key architect of the welfare rebellion has said the government’s concessions do not go far enough ahead of the vote, suggesting that there could still be a significant rebellion on Tuesday.
It comes after the government announced that existing PIP claimants would not be impacted by the cuts.
Debbie Abrahams, who was part of the team negotiating with Downing Street last week, said she “absolutely recognises the significance of these concessions” but warned that some disabled people with long term conditions will still “be affected by the changes that are currently in the bill”.
Asked whether she will vote against the bill on Tuesday, Ms Abrahams told ITV: “We’ll have to wait and see.
“The actual offer that was put to one of the negotiating team was not actually what we thought we had negotiated on Wednesday and Thursday and there are some issues around that
“We absolutely recognise these are good concessions but we’re not quite there yet.”
Exclusive | Cabinet minister insists Starmer will lead Labour into next election after fresh questions over his future
Monday 30 June 2025 23:59
,
Jabed Ahmed
Economic think tank: Government assessment understates poverty impact
Monday 30 June 2025 23:00
,
Jabed Ahmed
An economic think tank has warned that the government’s assessment of how many people will be plunged into poverty by Sir Keir Starmer’s benefit cuts by 100,000.
The government said on Monday that its welfare reforms will push an additional 150,000 people into poverty.
But the New Economics Foundation (NEF) said the cuts being made by the prime minister are being understated, with the impact assessment offsetting the impact of not proceeding with the previous Conservative government’s plans.
The impact of the actual changes being pursued by Labour are likely to actually see around 250,000 people pushed into poverty, NEF’s head of social policy Tom Pollard said.
Cleverly accuses Starmer of 'running away'
Monday 30 June 2025 22:01
,
Jabed Ahmed
James Cleverly has said the prime minister is allowing backbenchers to “boss him around”.
The former home secretary also accused Starmer of “running away”.
in a post on X, Mr Cleverly said: “Having bravely run away, Starmer is now being told to bravely run away some more.
“He really is the master of 3d chess, he’s got his backbenchers exactly where he wants them; bossing him around.”
He also shared tomorrow’s front page from The Independent:
Having bravely run away, Starmer is now being told to bravely run away some more.
— James Cleverly (@JamesCleverly) June 30, 2025
He really is the master of 3d chess, he’s got his backbenchers exactly where he wants them; bossing him around. pic.twitter.com/G4WQ9bkHE2
Sadiq Khan says he opposes government's welfare reforms
Monday 30 June 2025 22:01
,
Jabed Ahmed
The Mayor of London has said he still opposes the Government’s watered-down welfare Bill as it drives people into poverty and removes safety nets.
Sir Sadiq Khan said: “I think it drives too many people into poverty. It leads to a situation where those who need a safety net don’t have one.
“But also, I’ve met too many Londoners who have dignity, who do work, who through no fault of their own, need support from the state, and they’re really worried they’ll lose that.”
He said that the Government’s concessions had not yet gone “far enough” to address concerns among MPs opposing the Bill.
Sir Sadiq added: “I welcome the movement from the Government. They’ve not yet gone far enough to address the concerns we have.
“I’m hoping today and tomorrow they take further steps to address the concerns that many of us have.
“It is really important to involve disabled people, to involve disabled groups when you’re dealing with legislation that will have a huge impact on them.”
Disabilities minister stops short of expressing confidence ahead of welfare vote
Monday 30 June 2025 21:28
,
Jabed Ahmed
The disabilities minister said he hoped the government’s welfare changes would be supported by MPs on Tuesday, but would not say he was “confident” the proposals would pass the Commons.
Asked whether he was “confident” that MPs would back the Government’s revised plans, Sir Stephen Timms told Sky News: “We’ve got a very strong package, I certainly hope it passes.”
Later, he added: “Welfare reform is difficult, and I don’t think there’s any question that that is the case.
“It’s also extremely important. Everybody agrees the system as it stands doesn’t work.
“We’re determined to fix it, and we’re listening, we’re making changes, we’ve made a number announced over the weekend.
“I’m hoping that will convince the great majority of my colleagues to support the Bill tomorrow night.”
Petition opposing disability benefit cuts presented to Parliament
Monday 30 June 2025 21:18
,
Jabed Ahmed
A petition against the government’s welfare reforms has been presented to Parliament by Labour MP Richard Burgon.
The MP for Leeds East told the Commons: “I rise to present this petition on cuts to disability support, further to an online petition signed by over 77,000 people.
“This petition of residents of the United Kingdom declares that a 2% wealth tax on assets worth over £10 million could generate an additional £24 billion per year, it adds that it is considerably more than the Government plans to save by cutting key financial support for disabled people.”
Andy Burnham urges MPs to vote against Labour’s welfare reforms
Monday 30 June 2025 21:01
,
Jabed Ahmed
Andy Burnham has called on Labour MPs to vote down the government’s welfare reforms as Sir Keir Starmer attempts to stave off a backbench rebellion.
The Mayor of Greater Manchester said the prime minister said the changes to the welfare system will create "unfairness and divide" amongst disabled people.
He also said the prime minister had only performed a “half U-turn” which did not go far enough.
Mr Burnham’s comments will be seen as a direct challenge to the PM and an indication of his possible future leadership ambitions.
Read the full report below:
Changes to welfare reforms will cost £2.5bn, Kendal says
Monday 30 June 2025 21:00
,
Jabed Ahmed
Changes to the government’s welfare reforms will cost around £2.5 billion in 2029/30, work and pensions secretary Liz Kendall has told MPs.
She said she could announce on Monday the government is “putting an additional £300 million into employment support for sick and disabled people”.
Ms Kendall also told the Commons: “We will be delivering a total of £600 million for support next year, £800 million the year after, and £1 billion in 2028/29, increasing our total spending on employment support for sick and disabled people to £3.8 billion over this Parliament, because disabled people who can work shouldn’t wait to have the same rights and chances to work as everybody else.
“And the measures we are announcing today will cost around £2.5 billion in 2029/30.”
She said “the overall savings and costings” of the reform package “will be certified by the OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility) in the normal way”.
Full report | Labour in chaos as rebels demand more welfare concessions
Monday 30 June 2025 20:01
,
Jabed Ahmed
Read the full report on today’s events from our Political Editor David Maddox:
Analysis | The sound of silence for Liz Kendall was a big problem for Starmer beyond welfare reform
Monday 30 June 2025 19:03
,
Jabed Ahmed
Read the full analysis below from our Political Editor David Maddox:
Nearly 800,000 disabled children face cliff-edge over Labour’s ‘devastating’ welfare reforms
Monday 30 June 2025 18:58
,
Jabed Ahmed
Nearly 800,000 disabled children face losing their health-related benefits as the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) confirms that they will not be eligible for protections promised under the Labour’s welfare concessions.
Following a massive backbench rebellion over the government’s welfare bill last week, work and pensions secretary Liz Kendall announced several tweaks to the legislation on Monday afternoon ahead of a crunch vote on Tuesday.
But this protection will not be extended to the 773,000 under-16s currently in receipt of PIP’s child equivalent, the Disability Living Allowance (DLA), the DWP has confirmed.
Read the full report below from my colleague Albert Toth:
Key events from today
Monday 30 June 2025 18:31
,
Jabed Ahmed
- The government’s U-turn on welfare reforms will cost taxpayers around £2.5 billion by 2030, Liz Kendall told MPs.
- The revised plans will save less than half the £4.8 billion originally forecast, with final figures due in the autumn Budget.
- The changes follow major concessions to Labour backbenchers, including protecting existing Pip claimants from stricter eligibility rules.
- DWP modelling suggests the updated proposals could push 150,000 more people into poverty by 2030, down from 250,000 under the initial plans.
- The government says these figures don’t reflect the full impact of investment to help people with health conditions into work.
- Ms Kendall said the aim is to ensure “no existing claimants are put into poverty” while rejecting claims of a two-tier system.
- A Labour rebellion still looms ahead of Tuesday’s vote, with 126 MPs backing an amendment led by Dame Meg Hillier.
- The Tories said they will vote against the reforms
- The shortfall could force Chancellor Rachel Reeves to find new savings, with think tanks warning the cost could rise to £3 billion.
Tories say they will vote against reforms tomorrow
Monday 30 June 2025 18:04
,
Jabed Ahmed
The Conservatives will vote against the government’s welfare reforms on Tuesday.
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch said: “The welfare budget is out of control. Spending on health and disability benefits was £40 billion just before Covid and it is now projected to be £100 billion by 2030.
“What Labour is doing is not serious welfare reform. Last week we challenged them to cut the welfare budget, to bring in measures that would get people back into work, and to assure us there wouldn’t be new taxes to fill the gap.
“Keir Starmer has not met those challenges, in fact he’s watered down the small savings Labour were making.
“We have a Government that is incapable of governing. For that reason, we will be voting against the welfare bill tomorrow.”
Labour MP accuses government of 'ignoring' disabled people
Monday 30 June 2025 17:48
,
Jabed Ahmed
Labour’s Nadia Whittome accused the Government of “ignoring” disabled people, as she urged it to go “back to the drawing board” over its welfare reforms.
Ms Whittome, MP for Nottingham East, said: “The Government talks of co-production in the Pip (personal independence payment) review, but it’s not co-production if the Government’s starting point is delivering cuts, and it’s asking disabled people where they would prefer those cuts to be, rather than how can we create a system that truly supports disabled people.
“Does the Secretary of State not accept that after months of the Government ignoring disabled people, the only way meaningful co-production can take place is by pulling this Bill and going back to the drawing board?”
In her reply, work and pensions secretary Liz Kendall said: “We are changing the system so that many more sick and disabled people who want to work can actually get work, that is about building a better life in future.”
Andy McDonald, Labour MP for Middlesbrough and Thornaby East, said a two-tier system will “generate hardship for many and create societal divisions”, adding: “Will the Secretary of State continue to listen and withdraw this Bill and co-design welfare reform with disabled people’s groups?”
In her response, Ms Kendall said: “We have published our own very clear evidence that good employment programmes can help disabled people into work.”
Labour MP says he would be voting against the 'cruel cuts'
Monday 30 June 2025 17:37
,
Jabed Ahmed
Labour MP Ian Byrne told the Commons he will be voting against the “cruel cuts” to disability benefits because the “so-called concessions go nowhere near far enough”.
The Liverpool West Derby MP said: “These so-called concessions go nowhere near far enough, and tomorrow will be voting against these cruel cuts. But I want to ask, could the Secretary of State name a single disabled person led organisation that supports this legislation?”
Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall said she hoped Mr Byrne would “get involved in the Timms review”.
She added: “I understand why disability organisations are making the points that they do, that is their job. Our job is something different, our job is to take the right decisions that we believe are fair, to make sure we have a system that works for people who need support, but that is also sustainable for the future. That is not easy, I mean, that’s a statement of the obvious.
“But I believe we have a fair package, a package that protects existing claimants because they’ve come to rely on that support.”
Labour MPs demand clarity on Pip reforms amid concerns over young people and disability rights
Monday 30 June 2025 17:29
,
Jabed Ahmed
Labour backbench rebels have asked the Government to give more information on how the changes to Pip (personal independence payment) will affect groups.
Patricia Ferguson (Glasgow West) said: “I’m very grateful to my colleagues in the Labour front bench for listening to what backbenchers have been saying for months now, and for making so many changes.
“However, I didn’t see any changes that affect young people, particularly care-experienced young people. So I wonder if the Secretary of State will cast some light on what discussions are ongoing with young people about the processes involving them?”
Work and pensions secretary Liz Kendall said the government was establishing a youth panel, adding: “I’m sure there’s far more that we can be doing in future, and I urge her to work with us to make sure their views are heard.”
Stella Creasy (Walthamstow) said: “As it stands, the legal advice we’ve had is that these proposals will breach our obligations under the UN Convention on the Rights of People with Disabilities, something the previous government did and we rightly challenged them on it.
“So that we do not make the same mistake, will she give a commitment to write into a Bill that these proposals will be compliant with that commitment to make sure that persons with disabilities have social protection, and the enjoyment of that right without discrimination on the basis of their disability.”
Ms Kendall said: “I would not be making any changes that I believed were incompatible with the law.”
More Labour MPs question Kendall on reforms
Monday 30 June 2025 16:58
,
Athena Stavrou
Labour MP Marie Tidball said she had previously “engaged with the Government, making it clear I could not support the proposals on Pip”.
Ms Tidball told the Commons: “Our manifesto committed to championing the rights of disabled people, and to the principle of working with disabled people. Having no public consultation on these plans excludes the voices of disabled people.
“This is not just about process, this makes disabled people worse off. The principle of fairness means disabled people have a legitimate expectation to be consulted, and in order to fulfil the Equality Act section 149 public sector equality duty.
“Why did the Department for Work and Pensions choose not to consult with disabled people on Pip proposals, and what work will her department do to win back the trust of disabled people?”
Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall described the Penistone and Stocksbridge MP as a “powerful voice” and continued: “We are absolutely committed to co-producing this Pip review led by Sir Stephen Timms. She may know we are also setting up collaboration committees on access to work, and on pathways to work, to make sure we really get this right.
“I look forward to meeting with her and many other disabled people and their organisations to absolutely make sure we get this right as we go forward.”
Cabinet minister insists Starmer will lead Labour into next election after fresh questions over his future
Monday 30 June 2025 16:41
,
Athena Stavrou
A cabinet minister has rallied to the defence of Keir Starmer ahead of a crunch vote on his welfare reforms widely seen as a test of his authority.
Bridget Phillipson insisted the prime minister would lead her party into the next general election, amid growing questions over his future.
In an interview with The Independent days before Labour marks its first year in power, the education secretary also said government had its “ups and downs” and suggested better times were ahead.
Read the full story:
Kendall questioned on Pip review being released in same month changes come into effect
Monday 30 June 2025 16:27
,
Athena Stavrou
Labour’s Debbie Abrahams urged the Government not to “predetermine” the review of the Pip (personal independence payment) scheme.
Speaking in the Commons, the chairwoman of the Work and Pensions Committee said: “(Liz Kendall) said the four points won’t apply until November 2026, and that the review will report in November 2026, but surely the Pip review should determine the new process.
“If this is being truly co-produced with disabled people in their organisations, the review should determine both the new process, the new points and the new descriptors, and we shouldn’t predetermine it at four points.”
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