Last week, according to government spokesperson Fahmi Fadzil, the crisis in Negeri Sembilan has been “settled” following a meeting between the top leaders of PH and Umno.
Why did Fahmi say it is settled?
Well, according to Fahmi, it is settled because after the meeting, the top leaders of PH and Umno agreed that the Umno ADUNs would continue supporting the Aminuddin-led state government, and that if any issues crop up between Umno and PH in Negeri Sembilan, it will be referred to the central leadership of Umno and PH.
So is the matter really settled like Fahmi says?
Of course not - Fahmi probably only said what he said because that is what he is expected to say, regardless of whether it is tune with reality or not.
If you think about it, if the matter was truly settled, then any issue that crops up in Negeri Sembilan in the future would not need to be referred to the central leadership of Umno and PH for resolution, would it? It would be resolved in Negeri Sembilan itself, by Negeri Sembilan representatives and leaders, as it should be.
As a matter of fact, if the issues that crop up in Negeri Sembilan have to be taken to the central leadership for resolution, this is actually an indication that the problem in Negeri Sembilan might just be a couple of steps away from causing an Emergency to be declared in the state.
By definition, it is only when an Emergency is declared in a state that the affairs of the state are handled by the central government instead of the state government.
By that definition, the fact that Negeri Sembilan is now in a situation where issues arising in the state have to be referred to and resolved at the central level by the top leadership of PH and Umno is an indication that Negeri Sembilan is already in a state of unofficial or informal Emergency, isn’t it?
And as a further indication that the crisis in Negeri Sembilan is not resolved, Negeri Sembilan Menteri Besar Aminuddin Harun has also confirmed that the four exco positions vacated by Umno assemblymen will not be filled. Instead, the portfolios will be temporarily managed by the six remaining Pakatan Harapan exco members.
If the crisis in Negeri Sembilan was truly settled like Fahmi said, isn’t it strange that only PH is working for the Negeri Sembilan state goverment and only 6 out of the 10 exco positions in Negeri Sembilan is filled ?
The fact that just a day after Fahmi declared that the crisis in Negeri Sembilan was resolved, Aminuddin was already telling PH members to prepare for snap elections at a mega ceramah in Paroi is also not exactly inspiring confidence in Fahmi’s reassurance.
And the fact that a day after the PH ceramah, Negeri Sembilan Umno Youth chief Fadil Zin said that Umno was ready to go solo in the next state election, especially after some Pakatan Harapan leaders openly attacked Barisan Nasional at the mega ceramah the night before, is also clearly an indication that Fahmi’s reassurance was not worth the paper it was written on.
So if both PH and Umno are ready to escalate their dispute to the next level in Negeri Sembilan, what are they waiting for?
Well, if you ask me, I would say that what they are waiting for is simply the right time to come.
You see, when winners fight, what they expect is a prize.
Only losers fight to lash out - when winners fight, they will always expect a prize.
That prize can come in the form of position, status, medal, glory or even fame — but there must be a prize before winners will fight.
Currently, PH and Umno are not yet fighting because there is no prize to win.
If they fight now, the only thing PH and Umno will gain is shame and infamy, because the rakyat will blame them for creating unnecessary problems at a time when the rakyat have more pressing matters, like the economy, to worry about.
Because of that, both PH and Umno are waiting for the right time to appear, when they can expect the the rakyat to actually root for them when they finally begin fighting each other.
When will this right moment come?
Well, you can't when precisely - because just like how you cannot schedule when you will punch or kick in a physical fight, you can schedule when it is the right time to make a move in a political fight either.
All you can do is just be prepared and aware, and wait for an opening to strike to come.
However, if you ask me, the right moment will probably come sooner rather than later, and it is likely going to be provided by the royal crisis in Negeri Sembilan.
As it stands, the problem between the Yang di-Pertuan Besar of Negeri Sembilan and the four Undangs who elected him appears to be going from bad to worse.
On one side, the Undang of Sungai Ujong has been removed and replaced, although his removal and replacement have also created a whole new set of problems.
At the same time, the four Undangs of Negeri Sembilan are also striking back by taking their dispute to court.
Anyway, to cut a long story short, I will go out on a limb and say that soon, the dispute between the Yang di-Pertuan Besar and the four Undangs is going to worsen to the point where Umno and PH will be forced to choose sides, and both parties will then use the royal crisis as an opportunity to position themselves as defenders of Negeri Sembilan’s customs and traditions — while escalating their fight against each other to advance their political ambitions.
So in other words, right now, what we have to do is watch how the royal crisis plays out.
That is probably what Umno and PH are doing too.
The moment the royal crisis creates an opening, either PH or Umno will enter the fray and escalate the conflict, which will likely result in either a state of Emergency being declared or snap elections being called.
I do not think we will have to wait very long for this to happen, by the way. I think at the rate that the royal crisis in Negeri Sembilan is progressing, we will probably see major escalation in the Negeri Sembilan crisis within the next month or two.
So there you have it - this is what is going on in Negeri Sembilan today.
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