Khairy recently gave a suggestion on how to end the crisis in Negeri Sembilan.
"I think the most acceptable way is to have a vote of confidence in the Negeri Sembilan state assembly. And if a no-confidence motion is allowed, it would be an opportunity for Barisan Nasional to form a state government,” he said.
But is Khairy right ? Will a confidence vote solve the crisis in Negeri Sembilan?
Well, if you ask me, my answer is a no.
In the way I see it, a confidence vote will at best, have no effect and at worst, cause the crisis to deepen .
Why ?
Because a confidence vote will only resolve the crisis in Negeri Sembilan if there is only one problem in Negeri Sembilan, namely the tussle for power between PH and BN-PN.
But there are two problems in Negeri Sembilan: one is the crisis of the throne caused by the dispute between the King of Negeri Sembilan and the chieftains that elected him and the other is the dispute between PH and PN-BN for the state government.
Alone, each of these problems are vexing enough but together, they are reinforcing each other and upgrading the joint problem from being one that is merely very difficult to solve amicably, into becoming one that seems quite impossible to solve amicably.
A confidence vote in the state assembly can only resolve the PH vs BN-PN power tussle if there is no royal crisis.
That way, if a confidence vote was held and the PH government loses the confidence of the assembly, BN-PN can approach the king of Negeri Sembilan and seek the right to form the new state government, without needing for the state assembly to be dissolved and snap elections to be called.
But what is the point of having a confidence vote when regardless what the result of the confidence vote is, the king of Negeri Sembilan cannot determine who won or lost the confidence vote, because there is a question mark on who the king of Negeri Sembilan is today.
Both the claimants of the Negeri Sembilan throne have not fully fulfilled the conditions of being the ruler of Negeri Sembilan.
The incumbent ruler, Tuanku Muhriz, does not have the support of the Undangs, while his rival claimant, Tunku Nadzaruddin, who has the support of the Undangs, hasn't been formally and officially installed as a king.
This being the case, it is doubtful as to how much majesty and authority that Tuanku Muhriz has, to serve as the final arbiter in the dispute between PH and BN-PN in Negeri Sembilan.
Lacking the full majesty and authority to settle the PH vs BN-PN crisis with strength, the dispute will probably lead to the state assembly to be dissolved and snap elections called.
Judging by the past track record of Negeri Sembilan, the snap elections will also likely end with a hung result, with no one party winning a sufficient number of seats to form the state government , and thus again the intervention of the king will be required to make it work.
But again, the king will likely not be able to intervene, because the royal dispute in Negeri Sembilan is causing a doubt as to who the king of Negeri Sembilan is.
In my view, the original cause of the crisis in Negeri Sembilan is the royal crisis. It is the royal crisis that led to the crisis in the state government .
Because the royal crisis came first and serves as the supporting condition for the crisis in the state government, it is the royal crisis that has to be resolved first before the state government crisis to be resolved.
If you try to solve the state government crisis before you solve the royal crisis, it will be like trying to douse a peat forest fire by putting out the fire on the surface.
You might be able to extinguish the fire for a while, but the fire will arise again, fed by the simmering fire underground.
Just like how you must put out the fire underground before you can tame a peat forest fire, you must also resolve the royal crisis in Negeri Sembilan first , before you can put out the state government crisis in Negeri Sembilan.
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