It’s one of the biggest sports spectacles of the year, outranking even the NBA Finals. When 68 of the top college teams in the world meet in a win-or-go home tournament, any basketball fan, or any sports fan would want to watch.
The teams are divided into four regions, and in the East Region, the top ranked team is the Duke Blue Devils. It’s nothing new for the undisputed top recruiting school in the country. They have almost an entirely different starting five every year.
Two of their top recruits last year, Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel, are frontrunners for NBA Rookie of the Year. That alone speaks volumes of their recruitment prowess. But their consistency is so remarkable, right after the year of Flagg, who was hailed as a generational talent, we have Cameron Boozer.
Boozer is assembling one of the greatest college careers ever, averaging 22.5 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 4.2 assists. That rivals some of the best college resumes like those of Kevin Durant and Michael Beasley.
Winning Legacy
It would be presumptuous, but neither Durant or Beasley ever had the team success that Boozer had. Duke is the overall no.1 team of March Madness, with a dominant run with a historical high 20.5 point margin. They had two close losses, but most of the time, they were destroying the opposition, with Cameron at the center.
If we had a similar player in the UAAP or NCAA, he would be the easy first overall pick in the PBA Draft. But why is Boozer only ranked third behind AJ Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson?
Here’s the difference between how scouts evaluate in the NBA and the PBA, with the perspective of Cameron Boozer.
The “Upside” Factor
Unlike the PBA, the NBA drafts one-and-dones that are usually 19 years old. These prospects are already pro-talented, but their games have a lot of growth. Some of them are young enough to even grow taller (like Durant did).
Cam Boozer is seen as the most pro-ready among the top three, even top four if you include Caleb Wilson of North Carolina, but has the lowest upside. His game is the most developed, but the least to improve. He has a “high floor” but not a “high ceiling.”
In contrast to the PBA, top prospect Mike Phillips will be 24 years old. His game in the UAAP is already the same when he steps up. The age factor and the eventual lack of upside is one main reason college performance and success matters much more in the PBA than in the NBA.
Positional Translation
The other main hesitation is that Boozer’s game may not translate to the next level. His high efficiency and percentages show his dominance as a 6’8, 250 lb power forward in college. But would that hold up in the NBA?
Dybantsa and Peterson have NBA heights and athleticism for their positions, but scouts think Boozer would not be physically imposing at the NBA.
A better comparison would be Flagg. Boozer and Flagg have the same height and wingspan, but Flagg is lighter, with quicker lateral movement allowing him to play and defend multiple positions. Boozer is stronger, but is he “NBA strong?”
Big Mistake?
It’s not that Boozer will not be a good player. Just that Dybantsa, Peterson, and Flagg are better than him. These are conclusions made regardless of March Madness, even if Boozer leads Duke to win it all.
Boozer is seen as low risk, but also low reward. Peterson has had solid red flags that Boozer never had, but yet more will pick him over Boozer.
That could be a big mistake. Boozer’s game and hoops IQ is much higher than we can see now. In the few times he’s been tested and even physically overmatched, he found a way to win.
Boozer even has a better 3-point percentage than all his rivals, even Flagg. Also, Flagg’s entire first five made the NBA, including Knueppel. Boozer’s squad is strong, but not like last year’s edition.
Passing on Boozer is more than a risk, it’s a mistake.
