IS our China policy changing?
Nope, judging from recently intensifying confrontations between Philippine and Chinese coast guard vessels and even a tense encounter between a plane of our fisheries bureau and a Chinese jet fighter.
In late July, Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) and maritime militia allegedly blocked Philippine boats bringing fuel and other provisions to Filipino fishermen around Scarborough, or Panatag, Shoal, and on Oct. 4, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) vessels were prevented from pursuing a vessel suspected of illegal blast fishing. And on Oct. 1, the PCG said it chased away a Chinese research ship in waters near Batanes.
Yet on July 23, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. called for a “reset” of China relations to avoid repeating a July 20 incident at Ayungin Shoal in which a CCG trooper struck a Philippine Navy sailor with a wooden baton, causing a bloody head wound.
That prompted Marcos to summon Chinese Ambassador Jing Quan for an 80-minute Malacañang meeting on July 21. The president reportedly raised his desire for a “reset” to Philippines-China relations and open dialogue.
He later clarified that reset does not mean backing down or compromising on the country’s maritime sovereignty. Rather, we will activate bilateral talks whenever tensions or harsh rhetoric begin to spike.
All hopeful for peace — except that our security chiefs apparently missed the memo. Instead of bilateral talks to forestall incidents and cool down rhetoric, maritime incidents have intensified, along with acrimonious statements between Philippine and Chinese officials.
This apparent policy divergence between the commander-in-chief and certain defense, military and coast guard officials has emerged just when our main allies, the United States and Japan, are improving China relations.
During his Beijing visit in May, US President Donald Trump set aside his predecessor’s policy of promoting Taiwan’s international status and even pledging to defend the island from Chinese invasion, which US law does not commit. Trump also stalled a $14-billion arms sales package for Taiwan. That paved the way for President Xi Jinping’s recent Washington visit.
As for Tokyo-Beijing tensions, they flared a year ago after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi declared that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, which might legally allow military intervention.
But there were recent high-level talks to ease tensions conducted by former Japanese officials and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who sits on Beijing’s ruling Politburo. Now, Takaichi has called China an “important neighbor” and pledged to work toward a constructive, stable relationship.
Will Marcos buckle again?
President Marcos is therefore wise to take the cue from Trump and Takaichi: improve ties with China while maintaining alliances. So, even as military cooperation with Washington, Tokyo and other allies grows, the Philippines can address differences with China through diplomacy. And most important, we should not get involved in Taiwan hostilities — Beijing’s top concern — except to assist Filipinos.
In fact, that was President Marcos’ avowed policy back in 2023 when he implemented the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) for increased US military rotations here with access to nine bases of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. EDCA sites, he maintained even during his May 2023 state visit to Washington, were solely for Philippine defense, not Taiwan conflicts.
But US and Philippine defense officials ignored Marcos’ policy, which was never mentioned in the bilateral security accord forged during his Washington visit. Eventually, he went along with those gearing up for war over Taiwan, just as he succumbed to pressure on abandoning neutrality and siding with the US against China. Plus, the US-backed administration moves against his erstwhile ally Vice President Sara Duterte (“Why Marcos and America may just get desperate,” https://tinyurl.com/3dcayzp2).
Will Marcos again back away from resetting China ties? He may have heralded it in early 2025 by appointing Maria Theresa Lazaro foreign affairs secretary. She has handled talks with Beijing for years and favors diplomacy while still taking an assertive line on sovereignty and maritime frictions.
Certainly, the current escalation in China incidents isn’t easing tensions. Neither does strong exchanges between Philippine and Chinese officials, including Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. Ditto tensions stirred by the Sept. 1 death of a Chinese citizen detained by our Bureau of Immigration, and the exodus of Chinese language instructors spooked by reported espionage crackdown.
Now, there could be moves to make China tensions a presidential issue, with Sen. Panfilo Lacson citing Secretary Teodoro as a good candidate. Teodoro has called for the gathering of evidence on allegations of China-linked businesses funding Sara Duterte, made by her family’s longtime opponent, former senator Antonio Trillanes IV.
For the great majority of Filipinos, though, the biggest issues remain prices, jobs, poverty and corruption, with just a fraction bothering with China and impeachment, despite massive coverage of both topics.
Asia wants peace
If Marcos fails to have his reset of fractious China ties, the Philippines will increasingly fall out of step with nearly all Asia, especially with Japan also becoming less confrontational. We may end up becoming the Cuba of Asia, repeating the decades of Cuban economic stagnation hitched to the Soviet Union, while most of Latin America boomed with US trade, investment and aid.
Indeed, East Asia could reprise centuries of relative peace from the 17th to 19th centuries, before Western powers dragged us into imperialist and ideological wars. Regional peace largely returned after the Vietnam War when the Association of Southeast Asian Nations forged harmony among former ideological rivals, as non-communist states enhanced diplomacy and trade with socialist nations.
Today, Asia is resisting Western efforts to create alliances against China, and the US-Israel war on Iran has made the region even more fearful of hosting foreign arms and armies, with America’s Arab allies devastated by a conflict instigated by Israel and with little US defense.
In this emerging East Asian order, economic development, not military blocs, is the bulwark against conflict. Will the Philippines join that regional peace architecture or remain a US-Japan military outpost? And will Marcos risk adding war devastation to his legacy after flood control corruption?
