KUALA LUMPUR – Pakatan Harapan (PH) was already facing an uphill battle to secure Malay support in Melaka, but electoral cooperation between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) further consolidated the vote and dealt a significant blow to the coalition's prospects, political analysts say.
International Islamic University of Malaysia political analyst Assoc Prof Dr Syaza Shukri said PH's declining support was largely driven by non-Malay voters, while Malay voters had already been gravitating towards BN and PN in previous elections.
However, the absence of cooperation between the two coalitions in previous polls had resulted in three-cornered contests, splitting the Malay vote. Their decision to work together this time removed that division and strengthened their collective position.
"Honestly, PH never really stood a chance of winning Malay votes. So, in my view, the decline in support for PH came largely from non-Malay voters.
"Malay voters had already been supporting BN and PN, but previously, they were divided in three-cornered contests. This time, with BN and PN working together, it resulted in a major victory," she told Scoop.
Syaza said the concept of penyatuan ummah (Muslim unity) had also gained momentum following the Negeri Sembilan state election, encouraging Malay voters to rally behind the BN-PN partnership.
She also identified PH's inability to effectively engage younger voters, who make up about 25% of the electorate, as another weakness, pointing to the coalition's less aggressive social media presence and branding.
"Young voters are a very important segment of the electorate. They are often described as fence-sitters and make their decisions based on the information available to them.
"PH was less aggressive in terms of its branding on social media. BN, particularly candidates such as Datuk Mohd Noor Helmy Abdul Halem, managed to win over voters whom we did not really see PH candidates reaching," she said.
Universiti Malaya political analyst Awang Azman Pawi said PH's poor showing exposed its continuing difficulties in expanding beyond urban constituencies and its established voter base.
While the coalition retained considerable support in several urban areas, it struggled to gain traction in Malay-majority constituencies, where voters were more concerned with political stability, administrative performance and confidence in local leadership.
He also pointed to a growing disconnect between PH's reform agenda and public perceptions of the Federal Government's performance, particularly in addressing the rising cost of living.
The arrangement between PH and BN at the federal level, despite the two parties contesting against each other in Melaka, had also blurred their respective political identities and potentially complicated their appeal to voters.
"The decline in the number of seats does not necessarily indicate an outright rejection of PH. What is more apparent is its failure to expand its support base amid the changing political landscape," he said.
Awang Azman attributed BN's strong performance to confidence in the state leadership, an effective grassroots election machinery and the consolidation of Malay support through its cooperation with PN.
He said Melaka chief minister Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusoh had benefited from perceptions of administrative continuity, governing experience and political stability.
This was reflected in Ab Rauf's performance in Tanjung Bidara, where his majority surged from 364 votes in the 2021 state election to approximately 8,650 votes in Saturday's polls.
Awang Azman said the cost-of-living issue had also become an important consideration, with voters increasingly judging political parties on their ability to address economic pressures rather than their campaign promises alone.
The controversy surrounding former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak's house arrest issue may also have mobilised traditional Umno supporters, although he cautioned against viewing it as the sole explanation for BN's victory.
Instead, he said, the result reflected renewed confidence in BN's governing capabilities and its ability to provide political stability.
On the BN-PN partnership, Awang Azman said cooperation between the two coalitions had prevented the fragmentation of Malay votes, allowing them to coordinate their election machinery and improve their chances against PH.
However, he cautioned that an electoral pact did not automatically translate into complete unity among Malay voters, as support transfers would still depend on candidates' acceptance, the influence of local parties and the loyalty of individual supporters.
In Saturday's 16th Melaka state election, BN retained 21 of the 28 seats, while PN won three and PH secured just four.
The combined 24 seats gave BN and PN a two-thirds majority in the state assembly, comfortably surpassing the 19 required to reach the threshold.
PH's four-seat haul was down from the five it won in the 2021 election. Voter turnout was recorded at 71.77%, according to the Election Commission.
Geostrategist Prof Dr Azmi Hassan, meanwhile, said the overall turnout figure could mask differences in participation between constituencies, suggesting that weaker voter turnout in PH's traditional strongholds may have contributed to its poor performance.
He said Malay voters appeared to have turned out in greater numbers, while non-Malay voters, who traditionally form a significant part of PH's support base, may have been less inclined to vote.
Azmi suggested that some voters might have viewed BN as overwhelmingly dominant under the prevailing political circumstances, leaving them with little incentive to cast their ballots.
A similar perception could have affected younger voters working in Johor and the Klang Valley, who may have decided against travelling back to Melaka because they believed the outcome was already predictable.
"Those who were less likely to turn out to vote were certainly non-Malay voters, most of whom are PH supporters.
"Why did they not turn out to vote? This could be because they viewed BN as being too strong under the current political circumstances. The same perception may also have influenced young voters," he said.
"For young voters, many of them are probably working in Johor or the Klang Valley. They may have felt that it was not worth returning to vote because they had already anticipated which party would win the election and form the state government.
"Therefore, they may have felt there was no need to spend money and sacrifice their time to return home to vote," he said. - November 15, 2026
The post Melaka polls expose PH’s Malay support deficit as BN-PN sweep 24 seats: Analysts appeared first on Scoop.
