Support from DAP, Amanah offers some stability but insufficient to secure working majority without additional backing: Analysts
PETALING JAYA: Negeri Sembilan’s deepening political crisis has exposed the fragility of its state government and raised fresh questions over Barisan Nasional’s (BN) standing, with analysts warning of potential fallout for the coalition’s public image amid shifting alliances.
Political observers note that the administration led by Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun remains constitutionally intact but is operating on a razor-thin margin following the withdrawal of support from 14 Umno assemblymen.
Universiti Malaya sociopolitical analyst Prof Datuk Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said the government’s legitimacy still holds in formal terms, but its political footing has been significantly weakened.
“The legitimacy of the Negeri Sembilan government still exists from a formal standpoint as long as Aminuddin has not resigned, has not lost a vote of confidence and the state assembly has not been dissolved with royal consent.
“However, from a political perspective, that legitimacy is now extremely ‘thin’,” he said, pointing to the reduced numbers in the state assembly following Umno’s withdrawal of support.
He said a minority government could continue to function, but its survival ultimately depends on securing legislative backing.
“That said, the real test, both morally and politically, lies on the floor of the state assembly, not merely through media statements.”
Awang Azman said the menteri besar’s position is increasingly precarious, with mounting risks to day-to-day governance. “Aminuddin’s position is highly fragile.
Day-to-day risks include difficulty in passing the state budget, government motions being easily challenged, politically sensitive appointments and an administration that may be perceived as constantly on the brink of the next crisis.”
He also said while support from DAP and Amanah offers some stability, it is insufficient to secure a working majority without additional backing.
On potential realignments, he said a BN–Perikatan Nasional alignment could mathematically produce a majority, but significant political as well as institutional constraints remain.
These include BN’s role in the federal Unity government, entrenched grassroots rivalries and, within Negeri Sembilan’s constitutional-adat framework, the need for royal consent.
Meanwhile, Pacific Research Centre of Malaysia principal adviser Dr Oh Ei Sun offered a more critical view of BN’s longer-term trajectory, suggesting that recent developments could further shape public perception of the coalition.
“It is no secret that since even before 2018, many of the few remaining BN supporters are mainly those who depend on BN for projects and other benefits.”
He added that BN’s diminished presence at federal and state levels has curtailed its ability to dispense patronage, weakening its traditional support base.
“As BN is no longer in the driving seat of the federal and many state governments, although it remains part of several coalitions, it is hard pressed to deliver those benefits and thus struggles to even maintain its conventional support base, let alone expand it.”
He suggested that developments in Negeri Sembilan may reflect broader manoeuvring by Umno within BN. “It is fairly clear that the Negeri Sembilan situation is meant to signal to PKR the issue of leadership arrangements at the state level.
“With that, and perhaps other similar approaches, Umno, which heads BN, may be seeking to reassure its supporters that it can still deliver, albeit in a more limited capacity.”
