The upcoming Melaka state election is shaping up to be a test of whether new political parties can break the political formula that has long been dominated by Barisan Nasional (BN).
Political analyst Dr Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri said the election could provide a clearer picture of the strength of emerging parties such as Parti Wawasan Negara (WAWASAN) and Parti Bersama Malaysia (BERSAMA) within Malaysia’s political landscape.
At this stage, WAWASAN appears to have one advantage over BERSAMA. It already has a record of electoral victories.
BERSAMA suffered defeats in all 15 seats it contested in the Johor state election, while WAWASAN won three of the four seats it contested in Negeri Sembilan.
However, Zaharuddin cautioned that these figures should not be viewed in isolation. WAWASAN’s three victories in Negeri Sembilan came against the backdrop of a Perikatan Nasional (PN)-BN cooperation that ultimately secured 25 seats between the two blocs.
The victories therefore demonstrate that WAWASAN is capable of winning seats, but they do not yet establish whether the party can build an autonomous political strength outside a broader coalition formula.
For BERSAMA, the more fundamental question is whether its poor performance in Johor can be separated from the party’s political identity, or whether Melaka will become a second test of whether voters continue to associate the party with its previous defeat.
This, Zaharuddin argued, makes BN an important factor in understanding the Melaka contest.
BN won 21 of the 28 Melaka state seats in 2021, establishing itself as the dominant political force in the state.
Yet the party’s repeated statements about the possibility of working with other parties raise questions about whether the political landscape is beginning to shift.
Rather than simply being about negotiations over seat allocations, he sees BN’s willingness to consider cooperation as a possible indication that the political dynamics in Melaka are no longer as straightforward as they once were.
When a dominant party begins asking who should stand alongside it, smaller parties may in turn begin asking how much of the dominant party’s traditional support they can attract.
Against this backdrop, neither WAWASAN nor BERSAMA should be regarded as an early winner. Melaka should instead be viewed as a genuine test of both parties.
For WAWASAN, the challenge is to demonstrate that its three victories in Negeri Sembilan were not a one-off phenomenon. For BERSAMA, the task is to show that its 15 defeats in Johor do not define the party’s long-term political identity.
BN, meanwhile, faces an uncomfortable question of its own, if some of its traditional supporters are genuinely beginning to look elsewhere, which political force will ultimately capture those votes?
Elections do not necessarily bring down dominant parties simply because their opponents become stronger.
Sometimes, the first signs of political decline emerge when their own voters begin to find credible alternatives.
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