Anticipation swirls as the Sungai Bakap by-election approaches, a showdown between PAS (PN) and PKR (PH) will surely astound. All eyes are on the unfolding drama, where political strategies will collide and voter sentiments will shape the future. As stakes heighten, the contest promises to be a pivotal juncture, marking potential shifts in local dynamics and national narratives alike. In this article, I would like to make a bold prediction: PAS will win the Sungai Bakap by-election. There are several reasons why I say so and they are as follows:
1. Malaysian youths are becoming more conservative
In many democracies, youth voters are considered unreliable. However, in Malaysia, voter turnout among Malaysians aged 18 to 30 (Gen Z and Millennials) in GE 15 was an impressive 75.6 percent, according to political expert Bridget Welsh. This turnout rate nearly matched that of the 41- to 50-year-old group. The impact of Malaysian youths on closely contested seats like Sungai Bakap should not be underestimated. As Dr. Bridget Welsh explains, “Undi18 was less than 4 percent of the overall electorate (in Johor), and turnout was less than half. Since at least 15 seats were close, this group (referring to Malaysian youths) would have made an impact on the outcome if they voted.” Sungai Bakap is a closely contested seat, as Perikatan Nasional (PN) captured it in the state election last year, defeating Pakatan Harapan (PH) by a margin of 1,563 votes. This indicates that the upcoming contest will likely remain a close fight. There is no doubt that Malaysian youths will play a major role in the upcoming by-election.
However, there is just one caveat: Malaysian youths are becoming more conservative over time. A 2011 Merdeka Centre study found that 72 percent of Malaysian Muslim youth held conservative political views and favored replacing the Constitution with the Quran. This conservatism contrasts with their actual religious practices and is largely due to a lack of understanding of governance and the Constitution. Signs of rising conservatism have been observed in public schools, where compulsory religious education has also been criticized for being patriarchal and conservative. Additionally, there are many PAS preschools (PASTI) and a growing number of popular Pusat Tahfiz and other centers that focus on ensuring children can quickly memorize and recite the Quran. This indicates that Islamic revivalism is a widespread, societal shift. All of these factors will undoubtedly influence youth voters in Sungai Bakap to support PAS in the upcoming by-election. Malaysian youths were also pivotal in the 'Green Wave' of GE15. Dr. Bridget Welsh's research revealed that among young people aged 18 to 30, 37 percent expressed support for PN, slightly surpassing Harapan's 35 percent and BN's 23 percent.
2. The PAS candidate has more experience
Abidin Ismail, the PN candidate for the Sungai Bakap by-election, is the vice-chair of PAS (Parti Islam Se-Malaysia) Nibong Tebal. He served as the right-hand man to the late Nor Zamri Latiff, whose death from stomach inflammation on May 24 triggered this by-election. According to Berita Harian, Abidin worked closely with Nor Zamri Latiff for nine months. His political experience could give him an edge over his opponent, Joohari Ariffin, who previously worked as a lecturer at Institut Aminuddin Baki (northern branch) but has never held a political position before, making him a newcomer to the political scene.
This situation is rather similar to the Kemaman by-election in 2023, where PAS fielded Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar against Barisan Nasional's Raja Mohamed Affandi. Unsurprisingly, Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar, who was and still is the Terengganu chief minister, won the by-election by a significant margin of 37,220 votes, securing 64,998 votes in total. In contrast, Barisan Nasional (BN) candidate and former army chief Raja Mohamed Affandi received ONLY 27,778 votes. It appears PAS is using a similar strategy in the Sungai Bakap by-election, pitting a political heavyweight against a newcomer. Just as Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar (more political experience) faced Raja Mohamed Affandi (less political experience) in Kemaman, Abidin Ismail (more political experience) is now up against Joohari Ariffin (less political experience). We also have to factor in that Abidin Ismail who is the vice-chair of PAS Nibong Tebal is well-known to the locals and has gained significant exposure as the right-hand man of the late Nor Zamri Latiff.
3. The incumbent usually wins
PH, through PKR, held Sungai Bakap for three terms since 2008 until it was captured by Perikatan Nasional (PN) via PAS in the state election in August last year. In that election, PN defeated PH with a majority of 1,563 votes. Since PAS captured the seat, they are now the incumbents, and incumbents usually win. For instance, in the seven by-elections held since the 15th general election (GE15) in 2022, all incumbents have managed to retain their seats. This was even supported by Aira from IDEAS, who agreed that PN is the natural favourite to win as it is the incumbent in this seat.
This trend isn't unique to Malaysian politics; in the United States, incumbent presidents also tend to win re-election, except during recessions. This is due to several factors:
- The inertia and name recognition incumbents enjoy. They have the advantage of being well-known to voters and having a track record. Voters are often reluctant to make a change, especially in uncertain times.
- Existing campaign infrastructure and donor base. Incumbents benefit from an existing campaign infrastructure and donor base, giving them a head start in fundraising and organizing compared to challengers. Laura Wilson, an associate professor of political science at the University of Indianapolis, explained that incumbents are more likely to receive funding because they are proven winners. “And with incumbency advantage — and funders know this — they want to support someone who they think is going to be elected in office, not someone who they think will probably lose.”, she added.
There is without a doubt in my mind that the incumbent (PAS) will enjoy the same benefits as well in the upcoming Sungai Bakap by-election.
4. Diesel and the soaring cost of living
Starting June 10, the government raised diesel prices to RM3.35 per litre from RM2.15 in Peninsular Malaysia, a 55% increase, ending subsidies. To assist affected groups like lower-income individuals, farmers, and small businesses, monthly cash handouts of RM200 were introduced for eligible diesel vehicle owners. Despite this, Sharifah Sofiah Syed Jamil, 43, a fishmonger in Sungai Bakap, finds the RM200 insufficient. Formerly spending RM160 weekly on fuel for her Toyota Hilux, she now spends around RM240 weekly due to the price hike. Many throughout the nation except for Sabah and Sarawak are no doubt not happy with the removal of diesel subsidies.
This plays into the hands of PN politicians especially those from PAS who have been criticizing the Malaysian government for the increasing living costs exacerbated by recent cuts in diesel subsidies and higher utility rates. Adding to the situation is the government's announcement on June 17 of a three-sen reduction in retail egg prices, touted as a measure to alleviate the financial strain on people, but widely criticized as inadequate. According to The Straits Times interview, some PH supporters in Sungai Bakap have chosen not to participate in this by-election to express their dissatisfaction with the government. It's also possible that some residents might vote for PAS—not necessarily in support of PAS, but as a protest vote against the government, a trend observed in many elections. This is because Malaysia lacks ‘alternative parties’ to vote for - read this article for more information on that.
In closing, while my analysis suggests PAS may clinch victory in the Sungai Bakap by-election, I earnestly hope to be mistaken. The true determinant lies in robust voter turnout and conscientious participation—an essential cornerstone of democracy. Regardless of age or residency, each ballot cast carries immense weight in shaping our collective future. Therefore, I urge every eligible voter, whether in Sungai Bakap or with ties to the constituency, to exercise their right with careful consideration. Let us mobilize friends and family, ensuring that every vote is a deliberate choice for the direction we envision for our community and country.
Aaron Colt is a content creator under the Newswav Creator programme, where you get to express yourself, be a citizen journalist, and at the same time monetize your content & reach millions of users on Newswav. Log in to creator.newswav.com and become a Newswav Creator now!
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