The latest to call for snap elections to be called at the earliest possible time is DAP Youth.
If Umno decides to go solo in the next Johor election and contests all seats without coming to any seat-sharing arrangement with PH, DAP Youth wants snap elections to be called to coincide with the Johor state election.
“Don’t just talk about pushing to dissolve Parliament, withdraw support from the state governments formed together with BN today as well. Withdraw support in Perak. Withdraw support in Pahang.
“Let us fight in a gentlemanly manner and return the mandate to the people… If you truly want to test your strength, let’s open up the arena. Bring it on,” he said in a Facebook post.
As it is, both the Malacca and Johor state elections are due before 25 February 2027.
The Sarawak state election must also be held before 15 April 2027.
Although the Perlis and Negeri Sembilan state elections are not due anytime soon, both the Perlis and Negeri Sembilan state governments are operating under questionable mandates.
That being the case, I will go out on a limb and predict that once either Johor or Malacca announces that they are ready for elections, Perlis and Negeri Sembilan are going to dissolve their state assemblies so that all four states will be having their elections simultaneously too.
I won't be surprised if even Sarawak joins in and makes it a five-state election. But even if Sarawak doesn't join in, I still feel that the remaining four states — Johor, Malacca, Perlis and Negeri Sembilan — will be holding their state elections simultaneously, and it will be happening by the end of this year.
All these back-and-forth exchanges that are going on between Umno and DAP, as well as PAS and Bersatu in the case of Perlis, are signs that elections are going to happen sooner rather than later.
To the uninitiated, I will explain it this way — if a manager has already decided to fire an employee, they rarely do it overnight. First comes the warning letters, the counselling sessions, the meetings and the documentation. Not necessarily because the decision has not been made, but because when the firing eventually happens, they want everyone to believe that every possible effort was made to avoid it.
In the same way, all this back-and-forth between DAP and Umno, PAS and Bersatu, is just going on to legitimise a decision that may have already been made.
DAP and Umno, PAS and Bersatu, are likely already eager to go to election, not only in Johor, Perlis, Malacca and Negeri Sembilan, but across the entire country.
The back-and-forth they are engaging in is ultimately about legitimising their own desires. When elections are finally called, neither side wants voters to believe that they caused Parliament to be dissolved abruptly. Rather, each wants voters to believe that it was the other side that made it impossible to sustain the government, so as to avoid being punished at the ballot box.
This back-and-forth between them, however, can't last forever.
I believe that it can only last for another 3 or 4 months.
In three or four months, elections will have to be called, or they will all look like loud fools who only talk without making anything happen.
Now if these four or five states are holding their state elections, what is Anwar waiting for, you might ask? Why not just dissolve Parliament as well and hold the general election in one shot?
GE16 may only be due by 17 February 2028, but with all that is going on in our political scene today, it is an open secret that Anwar's mandate to rule is increasingly being doubted.
Not only is he losing confidence among MPs within his own party, PKR, but there he is also losing the confidence of DAP MPs in his PH coalition. Not only is he facing problems within his party and coalition, his allies — be they Umno, GPS and GRS — are not exactly satisfied with his rule either.
Considering that, when the four or five state elections occur, I am quite sure that Anwar will be facing tremendous pressure to dissolve Parliament and call for general elections in order to obtain a fresh mandate from the people.
I am quite sure that calling for elections is already on Anwar's mind.
If he doesn't call it, at the rate that DAP and Umno are having their back-and-forth exchanges, they might force the issue before he does and make him look bad.
Umno and DAP, as well GPS, can also call for a general election, by the way. If either of them withdraws support for Anwar's government, it would be enough to collapse it.
So what is Anwar waiting for, you ask?
Well, if you ask me, I don't think even Anwar knows exactly what he is waiting for — he will know what it is only when he sees it.
Right now, I think that Anwar only knows that he can't call for elections now, because if he calls it now, he will likely lose.
He also knows that he is not going to ever obtain a convincing victory no matter when he calls for elections.
So what is he waiting for then?
I reckon that he is waiting for something to happen that will allow him to call for elections with at least a decent chance of winning.
There is a saying that a week is a long time in politics, meaning that anything can happen in a week.
Somebody might die.
Infighting might occur in the opponent's camp.
WHO might declare another worldwide lockdown over an Ebola outbreak.
People might get excited over the coming World Cup this June and forget about politics for a month.
America and China might go to war.
Any one of these things, or something else entirely, could alter the equation and give Anwar a chance to win.
All he has to do then is hold out until he sees an opening before he calls for elections and tries to win.
How long can he wait, you ask?
Well, the answer to that question will depend on how much pain can he take?
All these problems he is facing — with Umno, DAP, GPS, GRS, Petronas, Petros, race relations, the economy, royalty, religious tensions and more — are all obviously causing him a lot of stress.
But Anwar is a veteran politician, and the thing about veterans is that they can take a lot of pain while waiting for the right moment to arrive.
That is why in armies, a battle-hardened soldier is valued more than a new recruit.
It is because a new recruit might be pressured into acting after facing only a little stress from an opponent, whereas a battle-hardened soldier can absorb far more punishment without reacting, patiently waiting for the right moment to strike.
But as battle-hardened as Anwar is, I still think he will be forced to call an election by the end of this year.
Waiting, after all, is a double-edged sword.
In the future, it is not only possible that his opponents weaken or that a favourable event helps him secure victory. There is also the possibility that something goes wrong, weakening him further or leading him deeper into defeat.
At the rate that fortune is turning against him, I actually think the latter is more likely than the former.
That being the case, now might actually be the best time for him to call elections, because as bad as things may be now, the future may be worse.
So in conclusion, I think the four or five state elections are the key events to watch, because I believe the general election will be called in tandem with them.
Considering that the Johor and Malacca elections are due next February, I would say that at the latest, the general election will occur by February next year.
But if I was a betting man, I would bet RM1.35 that it happens this year itself.
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