In hindsight, is Johor MB Onn Hafiz’s highly publicized vow to never “share” a state government with DAP a matter of principle—or a just a covert political ploy with PAS in mind?
In what may seem like a windfall to some Barisan Nasional leaders, PAS has called on its supporters to vote for UMNO-BN candidates in Johor state seats where Perikatan Nasional is not contesting.
In fact, by issuing the directive to its supporters not to vote for Pakatan Harapan, party deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man's call may even be interpreted by some as a great sacrifice by PAS—all for the sake of "ummah unity."
Unsurprisingly, UMNO Youth chief Dr. Muhamad Akmal Saleh was quick to welcome the goodwill gesture, while expressing hope that it continues in other states. Akmal is bound to be ecstatic; after all, hasn't he been virtually waging a one-man crusade for his party to join forces with PAS all this while?
Thanks to this “safety net” provided by PAS-PN, isn't UMNO-BN now almost certain of forming the new state government again?
The logic behind PAS’s strategy is simple. By consolidating the Malay vote behind UMNO in constituencies where PN isn't putting up a candidate, it could ensure the vote doesn't split in a way that allows PH to gain ground.
On the surface, it may seem like PAS is trying to project an image that it is willing to sacrifice virtually anything for the sake of Malay-Muslim unity. It is an act that could even bowl over some UMNO faithful.
The real agenda, however, would appear much clearer when one looks closer. Out of the 56 seats up for grabs, 29 are needed for a simple majority. So assuming BN wins only 26, PAS would instantly find itself acting as the kingmaker. Without even having to open its mouth, it would “force” BN into an impromptu coalition government in the name of the ummah.
To UMNO as well, it may come across as an offer it can hardly refuse, but one that could come with a heavy, hidden price tag—especially for the future. One obvious risk is that it could leave the nationalist party visibly beholden to PAS should it, against all odds, fail to secure at least a simple majority on its own.
Meanwhile, there will also be some in UMNO’s top hierarchy who may be “aware” that the Islamist party’s advances may be fueled less by genuine Muslim brotherhood, and more by a shared animosity toward the DAP given the latter's uncompromising stance on corruption and governance.
But would PAS care?
The irony is that, though it is fundamentally a religion-centric party, it views politics as “serious business.” And by playing this unorthodox hand, PAS could ensure that even if UMNO-BN falls short of forming the state administration, it could enter the scene as a saviour—and become part of the state government!
UMNO finally embraces PAS in Muslim unity, but will history repeat itself?
For the Islamist party, already having secured a toehold in Sabah, planting a foot in Johor—the very bastion of Malay nationalism—would be considered remarkable progress indeed. With PH and Bersatu expected to “cannibalize” each other's votes in the coming polls, surely things can't get any rosier for the smooth operators from the windy East Coast?
Historically, the wealthy southern state has always forged its own fiercely independent path, and no one should underestimate Johorean pride—or the watchful eye of its powerful palace.
As for this latest tactical gambit with PAS, Onn Hafiz and UMNO might boldly view it as a surefire way to victory. But what guarantee is there that it isn't a political “landmine” neatly packaged in the name of ummah unity?
Main information source: FMT and Malay Mail.
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