Anwar is so afraid of the Turun Anwar rally that three days before the rally, he announced that he is going to give each adult Malaysian RM100 and finally reduced the price of RON95 by six cents to RM1.99—just like he promised so many years ago.
He is so afraid of it that not only did the Chief Secretary of the civil service warn civil servants not to participate in the rally, but the Attorney-General has also pitched in to warn that action can be taken against them if they are found to be participating.
If the Chief Secretary warns the civil servants, there is some relevence to the warning, but if the Attorney General is also pitching in, I think it is safe to say that Anwar is worried.
Now, why is Anwar so afraid of the rally, you ask?
Does he really believe that the rally, as some people are claiming, will bring half a million people to protest against his rule?
Is his reign so weak that if he receives one kick from a decently sized rally, his entire administration risks collapsing?
Like the best-laid plans of mice and men, does he believe that all his schemes to consolidate power and position will unravel in a blink of an eye if the rally is successful?
Personally, I believe the answer to all the above questions is yes.
I think the Himpunan Turun Anwar rally this Saturday is a do-or-die moment for the opposition. If the rally is not successful, it will not be Anwar, but opposition leaders like Hadi or Muhyiddin who will find their days numbered. Considering that, I certainly believe the opposition will throw everything and the kitchen sink into this rally. I doubt the rally will attract half a million people as some opposition figures claim, but it doesn’t need that many to be a success—just a tenth of that, or 50,000, will suffice.
I don’t think Anwar’s reign is weak in the sense that people think someone else—like Muhyiddin, Mahathir, or Hadi—can do a better job. Recently, his rule has been hit with a string of problems: the rebellion of Rafizi Ramli, the controversy surrounding the appointment of top judges, the Yusoff Rawther issue, just to name a few. On the street, you can also notice a significant dip in support from his traditional base—particularly among Indians and Chinese, who once formed his strongest backing. The rising cost of living is another issue that could easily bite back. But despite all these problems, Anwar is blessed with the good fortune of having no clear alternative. No one else looks like they can do a better job. Given that, no matter how frustrated people are with him, they’re more likely to bear with him than seek to replace him.
However, we must also remember that Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year reign in Bangladesh was also hobbling along just fine—until one student protest in July last year led to its collapse in just one month. Under her, Bangladesh was doing relatively well, even emerging as one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. But a particularly energetic protest by university students, and her government's overreaction to it, was all it took for her reign to unravel. Hasina soon found herself fleeing the country.
We can’t dismiss the idea that Anwar might be edgy and afraid of the upcoming rally because he may be close to achieving his aim. For the past three years, brick by brick, inch by inch, dollar by dollar, Anwar has been doing everything he can to consolidate his position. He could be very close to finally securing it—and it might be because he’s so close that he’s afraid. We do, after all, become most disturbed when our long-sought goal is within reach, but not yet in our grasp.
Malaysia, we must remember, has a reputation for bringing down governments through rallies. The Hindraf rally in 2007 was instrumental in ending Pak Lah’s administration. The Bersih rallies were key in bringing down Najib’s government. Going by those precedents, the Turun Anwar rally also has the potential to bring down Anwar’s administration—if it succeeds in creating the impression that a large number of people have rejected his leadership.
As long as no one sees mass rejection of Anwar’s leadership, people will likely imagine that his rule is accepted—however grudgingly—by everyone. And if people perceive that his rule is accepted, they will be more inclined to accept it too, even if they are deeply frustrated.
If we see just 15,000 people protesting in KL in a meek and forgettable fashion, we’ll likely still retain the belief that Anwar’s rule is broadly consented to.
But if we see 50,000 people protesting energetically and memorably—perhaps by braving FRU water cannons or baton charges, as Hindraf and Bersih participants did—then we might begin to lose the belief that Anwar’s leadership has mass support. And then, Anwar will just look like an ordinary person, with two hands, two legs, and two eyes.
In Malaysia, as in many third-world countries, a leader is only safe so long as people see them in superlative terms. If we believe a leader is powerful, able to grant great rewards or mete out harsh punishment, with eyes and ears everywhere and a loyal base ready to defend them—then we’ll submit to their rule.
Once that image cracks, and the leader is seen as just another person like us, then woe to them. In countries like ours, when a leader loses power, the best-case scenario is exile. The worst is jail.
One particularly vigorous rally at the right moment is all it takes to change that perception—from great figure to ordinary man.
Anwar is right to fear July 26. And he’s right to act—by issuing warnings to civil servants and by reducing fuel prices in anticipation.
But as they say: the best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry. Man plans, God laughs.
Let’s see how the cookies crumble this 26th.
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