I believe that the rumours about how cracks have appeared between Hamzah and Muhyiddin are not just rumours. I believe that if Muhyiddin loses the 6-state election, which I predict will happen, he will indeed be replaced by Hamzah.
Of all the top leaders of Bersatu, only Hamzah has the weight to replace Muhyiddin.
Azumu doesn’t have the weight while Azmin has a cloud of controversy hanging over his head, which will condemn him to forever remain, at best, as the power behind the throne. He himself will never sit on the throne.
The arrest of the Sanusi, the MB of Kedah is going to be a test to Muhyiddin’s leadership.
Perikatan Nasional’s strategy for the six-state election chiefly rests on its ability to create an image of being victimised and evoke the sympathy of the voters.
That Hadi, Mahathir and Sanusi, the three big guns of the opposition, have been going all out to raise the racial and religious rhetoric in the country is not without reason. They do so because they wish to be arrested and they wish to be arrested because they wish to portray Anwar’s unity government as an oppressive government that is going to ill treat the Malays. If PN succeeds in portraying Anwar’s unity government in that light, they will be able to evoke sympathy and a desire to resist amongst the Malay electorate, which can be translated into votes.
That Sanusi has been arrested today (July 18) is a partial fulfilment of PN’s strategy. Sanusi has done his part, now the ball is in Muhyiddin's court.
If Muhyiddin is able to capitalise on Sanusi’s arrest to label Anwar’s unity government as an oppressive anti-Malay administration, then Muhyiddin might prevail after all. Even if PN doesn’t win the 6-state election, Muhyiddin can still expect to remain at the helm of PN.
But if Muhyiddin fails to capitalise on Sanusi’s arrest, then his fate is sealed. Not only will PN be certain to lose the 6-state election, Muhyiddin will likely have to step down as the head of PN.
Muhyiddin’s leadership has been awful. Post GE 15, Muhyiddin had the initiative, the momentum and a large depository of Malay support. Today, barely 8 months later, he doesn’t have any of it. He lost it all, because that is how poor his leadership is.
Recently, Focus Malaysia had printed an article to praise the “global influence of Bersatu sec-gen Hamzah Zainudin.” The content of the article is strictly for the birds, but the fact that the article was written by the Perikatan Nasional (PN) Federal Territories’ information chief tells us that the knives are already out for Muhyiddin.
Whatever we may think about PN, it is also true that PN has a remarkable internal cohesion and operates admirably as a consensus. When it is time for Muhyiddin to step down, I firmly believe that he will leave as a gentleman.
How will Hamzah fare as Muhyiddin’s replacement?
Well, the way I see it, Post GE 15, PN will likely have to retreat to its base in the north and the east of the peninsular. Even its base up north in Kedah is not secure. In the east, it can probably only depend on Kelantan as a base. Even PN Terengganu might not be able to withstand the advance of the unity government in the 6-state election.
It is hard to say how Hamzah will fare under such trying circumstances. Even the best leadership will likely find it difficult to turn things around from such a weakened position.
So to the question, will Hamzah be any better than Muhyiddin as a leader of PN, I believe the only appropriate answer is “we will have to wait and see.” I don’t think even Hamzah or anyone in PN knows what they are going to do when they lose the 6-state election.
Nehru Sathiamoorthy is a columnist at FMT, a mathematics teacher in the Klang Valley and a seeker of the meaning of life. So far, there are three things that he holds to be unequivocally true. The first is that the purpose of life is to pursue happiness, the second is that you cannot be happy unless you carry your fair share of the world's weight and the third is that you can never underestimate your ability to take your own side.
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