Suddenly everybody seems to be predicting that Zahid Hamidi is going to be the next PM of Malaysia.
The first to make the prediction was Khairy Jamaluddin , who out of the blue, without rhyme or reason, suddenly blurted out that Zahid's odds of being the next PM has improved drastically. It was out of the blue, because publicly, there was no good news about Zahid to justify the outlook.
But whatever it is that compelled Khairy to think so highly of Zahid so suddenly, he put his money where his mouth is , by rejoining UMNO not long after he made his prediction.
Zahid mind you was the reason why Khairy was kicked out of umno 3 years ago. Khairy, if I am not mistaken, has even said that that he will not come back to Umno for as long as Zahid was leading it . For 3 years he waited for Zahid to bite the dust, but one fine day, when he realised that Zahid was not only not going to bite the dust, but he might become the next PM or Malaysia instead, he decided to bury the hatchet with Zahid, bend the knees and re-enter umno, without asking for anything from Zahid, other than his old membership number at umno Sg Buloh.
Well, if you were wondering what is that Khairy saw that no one else did, of all people, Muhyiddin unexpectedly offered an answer.
According to Muhyiddin, one of the chief reason why he expelled Hamzah from Bersatu, is because Hamzah was conspiring with Zahid behind his back, in what was touted as the "Bangkok move".
Now we don't know what is that Hamzah and Zahid were talking about it Bangkok, but we do know that they were talking about something, because Hamzah himself would confirm that he did in fact hold a meeting with Zahid in Bangkok.
A couple of days ago, Tajuddin Rasdi, is also postulating that Zahid might be the next PM of Malaysia. Now, Tajuddin , being no fan of Zahid, was predicting that Zahid is going to be our next PM, the way that an irritated mother would warn their naughty children, about how the boogie man is going kidnap them if them don't do as they are told , but the very fact that Tajuddin was even hosting the possibililty in his head, is to me a sign that the possiblity that Zahid being the next PMof Malaysia might have transcended the private back room talks amongst politicians, and entered into the public domain
Now if you ask me whether it is possible that Zahid might be the next PM of Malaysia, my answer is yes, it is possible, depending on how PH, Bersatu and umno does in the next election.
Whatever seats that Pas won in the last election, I foresee that it will win it again, and there is also a chance that it might win more than what it won the last time.
The number of seats that Bersatu, Umno and the Bersatu splinter party led by Hamzah, if it comes to being by the next election, might win however, might vary in a zero sum manner, in the sense that whatever each win, will come at the expense of the other.
PH on the other is not going to win more seats that it won the last time, and there is a good chance that it might win less than it won the last time.
PH will lose more than it won the last time, not only because it's support base has declined, but because PKR might be facing a schism caused by Rafizi. If Rafizi doesn't enter the fray in the next election, the number of seats that PH might lose will not be high, but if Rafizi splits PH's support by entering the fray, not only PKR, but PH as a whole, will bleed heavily.
In coming out of the next election, if Pas retains the number of seat it won in the last election, and PH suffers a major setback, while Umno did better than Bersatu, then it might be up to umno to decide as to who will form the next government in Malaysia.
If Umno chooses to revive Muafakat National with Pas, it will be able to form the same Malay based government that we have seen in the past - the ones that were led by Muhyiddin Yassin and Ismail Sabri previously - but this time, it will be Zahid Hamidi that will be at it's helm.
If Umno chooses to side with PH and re-form the Madani government, it will be Zahid Hamidi that might be in the driver's seat instead of Anwar, if PH secures less number of seats in GE16 than what it did on GE15.
But even if Zahid Hamidi does become the next PM of Malaysia, I don't think it he will reign for a full term.
If the global economic crisis persists, and I believe that it will persist and worsen, I seriously doubt that the rakyat will tolerate the reign of somebody like Zahid, who can only be expected to run a country, if the country doesn't need to be run in the first place. If Malaysia was just running on auto pilot, as it has been running for many decades, because everything in Malaysia can be expected to be more or less as it always was , then sure, a reign by Zahid might be tolerated by the rakyat .
But in an environment where the economy is on fire, and everything from racial relationship to Sabah and Sarawak's relationship with the federation is falling apart, I give Zahid less than 20 percent chance of being tolerated by the people - in other words, I doubt that he will make it pass his first year of administration, and even if he does, I don't think he will make it pass the second.
I think Zahid will run Malaysia as how Anwar runs Malaysia, except Zahid will run it worse than Anwar.
If Anwar himself is struggling to run Malaysia under the condition we are in today, I have no doubt that Zahid will certainly fail.
And let's not forget, a reign by Zahid will likely be seen by most if not all Malaysians as insult to themselves.
Zahid does not exactly has a great reputation amongst Malaysians, and if he does become the next PM , it will almost certainly be because of political calculations, rather than because Malaysians can see themselves in him, and like what they see.
If we have to look at Zahid as the PM everyday , when we look in the mirror, we are not going to be able to respect ourselves .
That being the case, the only way I see Zahid reigning a full term if he wins GE16, is that it will come at the cost of the federation itself.
Rather than insult ourselves to accept him as our leader for a prolonged period, I think Malaysians might just choose not to be Malaysians at all.
That being the case, If Sarawak or Sabah want to secede if Zahid becomes the next PM, I don't think the rest of us in Semenanjung will have the energy or reason to protest their decision. As a matter of fact, we might just understand why they might want to leave, and resign ourselves to it.
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