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THE opposition bloc is expected to remain intact despite the expulsion of 17 members — including Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainudin — from Bersatu, with analysts predicting a period of political manoeuvring rather than immediate fragmentation.
Political observers and legal experts say the lawmakers aligned with Hamzah are likely to regroup, potentially under a new political vehicle, while maintaining ties within Perikatan Nasional, particularly with PAS.
Lawyer Mohamed Haniff Khatri Abdulla said Article 49(A) of the Federal Constitution makes clear that Members of Parliament do not forfeit their seats merely because they are expelled from their party.
“As it stands, Bersatu has admitted to expelling Hamzah and 16 others from the party. They remain members of the Dewan Rakyat, and if they choose to join another party, form a new one, or sit as Independents, they will not lose their seats,” he said.
Legal and constitutional expert Associate Professor Dr Khairil Azmin Mokhtar concurred, noting that expulsion does not automatically create a vacancy.
“On this matter, we always refer to Article 49(A) to determine if there is any casual vacancy. If they are expelled from the party, it does not trigger a by-election,” he said, adding that MPs are free to join another party, or do so collectively as part of a broader political realignment.
Professor Dr Sivamurugan Pandian, a political scientist at Universiti Sains Malaysia, said the most plausible short-term scenario is for the expelled MPs to remain “parked” under Perikatan Nasional while negotiating their leverage.
“Creating a new party is possible but it is actually quite risky and costly, time-consuming and there is an uncertain grassroots traction,” he said.
He dismissed the prospect of an immediate defection to Umno, citing a trust deficit and potential seat conflicts unless a consolidation could be achieved without preconditions.
Dr Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia expects the group aligned with Hamzah to continue exerting pressure on Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, particularly with PAS — the coalition’s largest component — playing a decisive role.
“PAS, who is Bersatu’s biggest partner in Perikatan will also likely to pressure Muhyiddin,” he said.
“I think PAS will not really be bothered about Muhyiddin and Bersatu, and the Islamist party will start a new alliance with Hamzah to face the 16th General Election,” he added, predicting that PAS may see greater advantage in working with Hamzah, who is perceived to command stronger support among certain MPs and grassroots leaders.
Several of the expelled lawmakers have indicated they will await Hamzah’s decision after consultations with various parties.
One MP from Perak, speaking on condition of anonymity, declared: “We stand behind Datuk Seri Hamzah. He is our leader now, and he will inform us when the time is right.
“Whatever decision is made will certainly be in the best interests of the country and for political stability.”
The expulsions have also reignited speculation that Hamzah could stage a dramatic return to Umno, more than seven years after leaving the party to join Bersatu following Barisan Nasional’s defeat in the 14th General Election in 2018.
Sources said Hamzah had held discussions with Umno president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, including a meeting in Bangkok last year.
“They (Hamzah and Zahid) met in Bangkok last year,” said a well-placed source.
While the anti-hopping law would prevent a direct transfer of seats, the source suggested that a broader political realignment ahead of the next general election remains possible.
“This is the 'Rumah Bangsa' concept mooted by the president,” the source said, referring to the framework outlined by Zahid at the recent Umno general assembly.
Zahid has described Rumah Bangsa as an initiative to welcome back Malays who once belonged to Umno but later formed or joined other parties.
“It is not just Hamzah, but other Malay leaders who do not 'belong' anywhere,” the source added, naming figures such as former minister Khairy Jamaluddin, ex-Umno information chief Shahril Sufian Hamdan and individuals linked to Parti Berjasa Malaysia.
Hamzah’s political journey has been closely intertwined with Malaysia’s shifting alliances.
After joining Bersatu under Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, he later aligned himself with Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin during the Sheraton Move, which led to the collapse of the Pakatan Harapan government. He subsequently served as home minister in Muhyiddin’s administration and rose to become Bersatu secretary-general and later deputy president.
His recent expulsion followed allegations that he had plotted to challenge Muhyiddin’s leadership.
Should Hamzah return to Umno, sources suggest he may not do so alone, with several expelled MPs reportedly open to joining him.
However, reaction within Umno has been mixed. Supreme council member Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Maslan insisted the party would not exploit divisions in rival parties.
“Umno has no intention of taking advantage of the split within rival parties.
“The party wants to strengthen its position based on its own strengths, principles and grassroots support,” he said after attending a function in Pontian.
He said Umno’s strategic direction would be guided by three frameworks articulated by its president: Rumah Bangsa, Masyarakat Nasional and Kolaborasi Agung.
“These are the concepts of Rumah Bangsa, Masyarakat Nasional and Kolaborasi Agung. These form the basis for any strategic consideration, including the issue of accepting political figures from other parties.
“Every decision Umno makes must be prudent and in accordance with the party constitution and principles,” he said.
Not all within Umno are convinced. Youth executive committee member Mohd Syauqi Ibnihajar Ahmad warned that accepting Hamzah could prove divisive.
“It would only create greater division within the party, damage Umno's credibility in the eyes of the grassroots who still remember this 'betrayal',” he said in a Facebook post.
For now, the opposition appears set for recalibration rather than rupture, with the anti-hopping safeguards ensuring that parliamentary arithmetic remains unchanged — even as alliances are tested behind the scenes. - February 16, 2026