THE peso breached the P63:$1 level against the greenback on Thursday, hitting a record low of P63.15 before closing at P63.06.
Thursday’s closing rate was 19 centavos weaker from Wednesday’s P62.87 and the lowest closing rate on record since Oct. 8.
The local currency opened at P62.83 and traded between P62.75 and P63.15 to the dollar. Volume reached P1.501 billion, higher than the previous trading day’s P941 million.
The peso has been trading above P60:$1 since the Middle East war started in March. Its weakest finish was in Oct. 8, when it closed at P62.9.
To date, the peso has depreciated by P4.08 or 6.49 percent from the P58.79 recorded on Dec. 29, 2025.
Union Bank of the Philippines chief economist Ruben Carlo Asuncion said the peso weakened further due to stronger US inflation and expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for longer.
This, Asuncion said, supported the US dollar and pushed Treasury yields higher.
“This has reduced investor appetite for emerging-market currencies, including the peso,” Asuncion said.
Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) senior fellow John Paolo Rivera, meanwhile, said the peso could remain under pressure due to “external pressures, particularly global uncertainty, elevated oil prices, and sustained demand for the US dollar, alongside domestic concerns over inflation and investment inflows.”
“We can expect continued forex rate volatility, with a depreciation bias in the near term,” Rivera said.
He, however, stressed that breaching P63-level does not necessarily mean “sustained depreciation.”
“Concern is its impact on import costs, inflation, and household purchasing power,” Rivera said.
“Priority should be managing excessive volatility while preserving price stability and investor confidence,” he added.
On the local front, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael Ricafort said other factors that could support the peso may include a possible rate hike by the policymaking Monetary Board on Oct. 22 and the passage of the Anti-Political Dynasty Bill as urged by the Supreme Court and also backed by Malacañang as part of the reform measures to further improve governance standards that help improve investor confidence.
“Other catalyst for the peso include the seasonal increase in OFW remittances, export sales, and other US dollar sales in time for the Christmas holiday-related spending and holiday-related pay by exporters, BPO companies, among others,” Ricafort said.
For today, Ricafort said exchange rate could range at 63.00-63.20 levels.
