FORECASTERS say a potentially “super” El Niño is rapidly taking shape in the Pacific — but whether it evolves into a history-making event could hinge on fickle winds and other volatile atmospheric shifts.
The fast-warming tropical Pacific is pointing to a major event, but a crucial weakening of trade winds — capable of turbocharging or throttling the phenomenon — has yet to materialize.
Scientists say these interactions are notoriously complex and difficult to predict — making it too early to confidently forecast how powerful this El Niño could become.
The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says there is about an 80 percent chance of El Niño developing by July.
Sea temperatures in key El Niño zones of the equatorial Pacific are rapidly rising, and an enormous pool of abnormally warm water is massing beneath the surface.
Several leading weather services are predicting Pacific sea temperatures could surge 2.5C or more above average later this year — exceptionally high projections.
Just three events — 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16 — have breached 2C since the first major El Niño recorded in the modern era in 1877/78.
Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the UK Met Office, said this El Niño could be the strongest in decades or “even be of record strength.”
“There’s definitely something coming. We’re very confident about that, and it looks like it will be a big event,” he told Agence France-Presse (AFP).
NOAA forecasts a one-in-three chance this episode will hit 2C or above — crossing into what is dubbed “super El Niño” territory.
But key pieces of the puzzle had yet to fall into place, said Michelle L’Heureux, NOAA’s El Niño-Southern Oscillation lead.
El Niños build strength as the ocean and atmosphere increasingly “couple” over the summer months, shifting air pressure, cloud patterns and winds.
This feedback loop can turn a modest El Niño into a blockbuster event, supercharging heat and triggering chaotic weather worldwide.
A hallmark of the strongest El Niños is the weakening of trade winds that blow east to west across the equator.
But those winds are unpredictable and can strengthen unexpectedly, said L’Heureux.
“When that happens, it pauses the growth of El Niño or even reverses it,” she told AFP. “Ultimately the strength of this event will be likely influenced by these details, like the low-level winds, which we cannot predict many months in advance.”
El Niño tends to peak around December but ocean heat releases slowly and can drive up global temperatures the following years.
Many record-hot years — including 1998, 2010, 2016, 2023 and 2024 — followed major El Niño events or developed alongside them.
Climate scientists interviewed by AFP said global heat records could fall in 2026 — but 2027 was the year to watch.
There “could easily be a new record level of global warmth in 2027” if an extreme El Niño takes shape this year, said Scaife.
