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CLIMATE forecasters are increasingly concerned that a potentially powerful “super El Nino” event could emerge later this year, with rapidly warming Pacific Ocean temperatures fuelling fears of unprecedented global heat and severe weather disruptions across multiple continents.
Scientists say conditions in the tropical Pacific are strengthening quickly, with ocean temperatures already flashing warning signs associated with major El Nino episodes historically linked to droughts, floods, crop disruptions and record-breaking global temperatures.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there is now roughly an 80 per cent probability that El Nino conditions will fully develop by July.
Meteorological agencies have reported rapidly rising sea surface temperatures across key equatorial Pacific zones, accompanied by a massive accumulation of unusually warm water beneath the ocean surface — conditions often associated with large-scale El Nino development.
Several leading climate forecasting centres are projecting Pacific temperature anomalies could climb to 2.5 degrees Celsius or more above average later in 2026, levels associated with some of the strongest El Nino events ever recorded.
Only three modern El Nino episodes — those of 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16 — have exceeded the 2-degree threshold since modern climate monitoring began in the late nineteenth century.
Professor Adam Scaife of the Met Office warned the developing event could become one of the most powerful in decades.
“There’s definitely something coming. We’re very confident about that, and it looks like it will be a big event,” he told AFP.
He added that the phenomenon could potentially become “even of record strength”.
NOAA estimates there is approximately a one-in-three chance the event could intensify into “super El Nino” territory, defined by temperature anomalies exceeding 2 degrees Celsius.
However, scientists caution that the ultimate strength of the event remains uncertain because critical atmospheric processes have yet to fully align.
Michelle L’Heureux explained that El Nino systems intensify when ocean and atmospheric conditions begin strongly interacting during the northern hemisphere summer, affecting wind patterns, cloud systems and air pressure across the Pacific.
A major factor under close observation is the behaviour of the Pacific trade winds, which normally blow east to west along the equator.
Strong El Nino events are typically associated with weakening trade winds, but forecasters warn these atmospheric patterns remain highly unpredictable.
“When that happens, it pauses the growth of El Nino or even reverses it,” L’Heureux said, referring to scenarios where the winds unexpectedly strengthen.
“Ultimately the strength of this event will be likely influenced by these details, like the low-level winds, which we cannot predict many months in advance,” she added.
Although El Nino events usually peak around December, the warming effect on global temperatures often continues into subsequent years because oceans release stored heat gradually.
Many of the hottest years ever recorded globally — including 1998, 2010, 2016, 2023 and 2024 — either followed or coincided with strong El Nino episodes.
Scientists interviewed by AFP said 2027 could potentially become the hottest year in recorded history if an extreme El Nino fully materialises this year.
“There could easily be a new record level of global warmth in 2027 if an extreme El Nino takes shape this year,” Scaife said.
Researchers remain uncertain about how much human-driven climate change is influencing El Nino intensity itself.
The previous El Nino event during 2023 and 2024 was weaker than the historic episodes of 1982/83 and 1997/98, making long-term trends difficult to conclusively establish.
Nevertheless, scientists warn that even moderate El Nino events now occur in a far hotter and more unstable climate system than in previous decades.
Additional atmospheric heat and moisture caused by global warming are amplifying weather extremes, potentially intensifying El Nino’s real-world impacts even if the climate pattern itself does not become significantly stronger.
“The impacts of this El Nino — on things like rainfall and of course temperature — are riding on top of climate change, and could well be larger than anything we’ve seen in the past,” Scaife said.
Historically, major El Nino events have triggered drought conditions across parts of the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia, while also disrupting Indian monsoon systems and altering rainfall patterns across tropical regions.
However, climatologists say climate change has transformed global weather baselines so significantly that historical comparisons are becoming less reliable.
Felicity Gamble from the Bureau of Meteorology warned that modern El Nino events may behave differently from those recorded decades ago.
“What happened during an El Nino event 20 years ago is probably quite different to how it might manifest these days,” she said.
She also noted that long-term ocean warming caused by climate change is making El Nino conditions easier to trigger while complicating efforts to distinguish them from La Nina cooling phases.
Meteorological agencies including NOAA and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology have begun adjusting climate forecasting models to account for background warming trends in an effort to improve accuracy.
Even so, Australian forecasters are projecting the current El Nino could potentially reach temperature anomalies as high as 2.8 degrees Celsius — a level that could place the event among the strongest ever recorded. - May 22, 2026
