Premier League title race: Do Arsenal or Man City have the easier run-in?

Football
3 May 2026 • 8:09 PM MYT
The Independent
The Independent

The world’s most free-thinking newspaper

Premier League title race: Do Arsenal or Man City have the easier run-in?

The Premier League is set up for another thrilling run-in after Arsenal extended their advantage at the top of the Premier League with victory over Fulham.

Manchester City’s win over Arsenal last month set up a fascinating last month of the title race, cutting the Gunners’ lead to just three points before taking top spot with victory over Burnley.

Arsenal have regained the edge but City are yet to have a chance to respond, with their FA Cup semi-final commitments meaning they now once again have a game in hand.

The Gunners are bidding to finally end their 22-year wait for a league title but they could well face a shootout for this season’s trophy, with goal difference potentially deciding the destination of the title.

City denied Arsenal the title in both 2023 and 2024, and now the Gunners will feel they need four wins from their remaining four games in order to win the league for the first time since 2004.

However, City will likely feel the same, and with just a few games left of their campaign, here’s how the crucial run-in is shaping up.

Arsenal

Played: 35 | Points: 76 | GD: 41

Remaining fixtures:

  • 10 May - West Ham (A)
  • 17 May - Burnley (H)
  • 24 May - Crystal Palace (A)

Toughest game? West Ham are fighting for their Premier League survival, with they or Tottenham looking likeliest to go down – Spurs seldom want their north London rivals to win but an Arsenal victory might be accepted under these circumstances.

Final straight? While the loss to City is damaging, Arsenal can only try and win all of their final three games now. 19th-placed Burnley have already been condemned to the drop, and Crystal Palace could be preparing for a Europa Conference League final by the time they head to Selhurst Park for the final game of the season.

Man City

Played: 33 | Points: 70 | GD: 37

Remaining fixtures:

  • 4 May - Everton (A)
  • 9 May - Brentford (H)
  • 13 May - Crystal Palace (H)
  • 17 May - Bournemouth (A)
  • 22 May - Aston Villa (H)

Toughest game? Pep Guardiola’s side have hit their purple patch and now again have a game in hand to close the gap. Three home games are a help but a final-day fixture against Aston Villa could be a tough end to the season if everything isn’t already decided by then.

Final straight? On paper, much tougher than Arsenal’s. Brentford and Bournemouth are in the mix for European qualification over the final weeks of the season and City have to play them both in their final three games. Then, they host Aston Villa on the final weekend of the season. Unai Emery’s side could have Champions League qualification wrapped up by then, though, and there is a chance they could still be celebrating victory in the Europa League final if they advance past Nottingham Forest to get there.

Verdict?

Arsenal’s fixtures look more favourable than City’s, particularly in their final stretch, but the result at the Etihad means momentum has swung in City’s favour, and Pep Guardiola’s side look in ominous form. The Gunners have returned to the top of the table for now, but will they have enough to stay there in the next few weeks?

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