Reform UK would fall behind both Labour and the Conservatives if a general election were held today, new polling suggests, in a major blow to Nigel Farage.
In yet more bad news for Reform UK, YouGov’s latest large-scale seat poll predicted the party would secure just 123 seats as they slide down from top spot to third place.
It marks a stark difference from last year’s polling, which suggested Reform UK would form the largest party in parliament, followed by Labour and the Conservatives.
In good news for Andy Burnham, Labour would secure 241 seats if a general election was held today. The Tories would remain in second place with 130 seats.
But the MRP poll suggests the UK is heading for a hung parliament, with Labour likely having to secure support from the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party in order to govern after losing a predicted 162 seats.
The 2025 data predicted Reform would secure 311 seats, beating Labour on 144 seats and the Tories with just 45 seats.
In more bad news for Reform UK, the poll predicts Tory defectors Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman would lose their seats to their old party.
Patrick English, head of elections at YouGov, told The Times there “just simply isn’t” a way for Reform and the Tories to form a coalition to build a majority.
“YouGov’s latest projections put Labour clearly ahead of both Reform and the Conservatives in terms of seats, while being only a fraction ahead of each on vote share,” he said.
“While Labour alone remain well short of a majority, there are a wide range of possible ‘coalition of the left’ options open to them to build a majority in a way where there just simply isn’t for Reform and the Conservatives on the right.
“While the British political left is more fragmented than the right in terms of the number of different parties, their collective vote share is bigger and translates efficiently into seat wins.”
But Alan Lockey, who until earlier this year was Keir Starmer’s speechwriter, warned on X, formerly Twitter: “I cannot stress how much the Labour Party has emotionally and pyscholgically committed to the prospect of facing Reform at the next (general election). “
Pointing to a graph of the poll, showing Reform in third place, he added: “They’re (Labour) not ready for the Tories and, well... “
Former President of YouGov Peter Kellner said the findings were “very, very bad news for Nigel Farage”.
"Not only is (Reform's) vote down ... but the determination of non-Reform voters to make sure that Reform doesn't win in their seat - that determination is high and growing. And this is very, very bad news for Nigel Farage," he told Times Radio.
Deputy Reform leader Richard Tice insisted his party was “ready” for an election, after it received £72m in donations earlier this month.
“Who knows when the election will be, whether it's early part of next year, or whether it goes long through until 29,” he told Times Radio. “We'll be ready. The good news is we've raised the money. So now we're cracking on with selecting candidates and we're getting ready. And in the Labour heartlands, there is no love for a government and a Labour party. that, frankly, is taking the country towards ruin.”
A second MRP poll released on Thursday found tactical voting by progressives could even push Reform into fourth, with Labour within touching distance of a majority, at the next election.
The poll of more than 8,000 voters, published by Guardian, also found Mr Burnham was beginning to attract a significant number of left-leaning voters, determined to stop Nigel Farage, back to Labour.
It comes after Reform UK recorded its worst result in YouGov polling for two years, following months of turbulence for the party.
The new poll released earlier this week put their support down by two points at 21 per cent – neck-and-neck with the Tories in second place. Both parties are two points behind Labour in first at 23 per cent.
In third place is the Green Party, up three points with 14 per cent support. The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, are on 12 points, down by one.
The latest polling has returned the lowest share YouGov has recorded for Reform UK since the pollster restarted its voting intention tracker in January 2025. It comes just days after Mr Farage‘s individual popularity reached a record low.
Mr Farage now has a net favourability rating of -45, identical to Sir Keir Starmer’s score just before his resignation as prime minister. This is down from a rating of -31 this time last year, with Britons now nearly three times as likely to see him negatively than positively
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