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KUALA LUMPUR - Research houses expect Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to maintain the overnight policy rate (OPR) at 2.75 per cent at its final Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in November, following yesterday’s decision to keep the rate unchanged.
In a note, Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) said it interpreted this subtle shift in tone as a signal that an eventual recalibration is on the table, although not in the immediate future.
Given the still-contained inflation environment, HLIB said it expects the central bank to retain its policy space to keep a wait-and-see stance.
"While we continue to anticipate an eventual policy normalisation back to 3.00 per cent, we opine that this 25 basis points hike will likely only materialise in 2027,” it said.
Echoing HLIB, CIMB Investment Bank Bhd sees a greater risk of a 25 bps hike back to 3.00 per cent in the OPR in the first half of 2027 (1H 2027). This is especially so if current growth momentum continues into 2H 2026 and 2027, alongside rising inflation signs due to broad-based demand pressures.
"We will be watching our inflation monitor closely, which would strengthen the case for policy normalisation,” the research bank said.
Meanwhile, RHB Investment Bank Bhd said the possibility of a 25 bps rate hike cannot be ruled out in the coming months if inflation is higher and more persistent than expected.
"Resilient economic fundamentals and manageable inflationary pressures support a broadly stable policy stance, with no immediate need for policy adjustments.
"Nonetheless, lingering uncertainties surrounding geopolitical tensions and unexpected oil supply disruptions among major oil-producing nations could place upward pressure on global energy prices,” it said. - BERNAMA
