LOCAL organization National Movement for Food Sovereignty (NMFS) on Thursday said that private traders are holding more rice inventory than the government, and that climate risks and global conflicts could push rice imports to as high as 5.5 to 6.0 million metric tons (MT) this year till 2027.
NMFS is a coalition of small-scale farmers, fisherfolk, Indigenous peoples, rural women and youth groups advocating for food independence and climate justice.
Based on data from the Philippine Statistics Authority, NMFS said rice supply has become unstable with total stocks at 1.88 million MT as of March 1, or equivalent to only 50 days of national consumption.
“The situation is somewhat precarious because rice stored in the traders’ warehouses is still larger than what the government has here,” NMFS co-convenor Arze Glipo told The Manila Times.
Of the total, households hold about 908,720 MT; traders, 564,220 MT; and National Food Authority (NFA) warehouses, 404,390 MT.
NFA Administrator Larry Lacson earlier said the agency’s buffer stock would last only 10.3 days, below the recommended 15-day emergency level.
Glipo accused traders of holding stocks to take advantage of tighter supply and higher costs.
Rice prices have surged in recent weeks, rising from above P50 per kilogram (kg) in early March to as high as P70/kg in late March, including in supermarkets.
The NFA released about 30,000 MT of aging but good stocks in February and March costing P26/kg, while regular milled sold for P70/kg in some areas, Glipo said.
She warned that the June to September lean season could worsen supply conditions, while fuel shortages and logistics delays are slowing imports.
The situation, Glipo said, is compounded by the Rice Tariffication Law, which removed quantitative restrictions on imports and shifted import decisions to private traders.
In 2025, imports reached 4 million MT, Glipo said, describing it as excessive and disruptive to local palay (unmilled rice) prices.
Rising fertilizer and fuel costs have also reduced farm profitability, with urea prices up 46 percent since January.
The NFA’s palay buying prices, ranging from P17 to P21/kg, were too limited to support farmers, Glipo said.
NMFS called on the government to allocate a P20-billion fund for NFA procurement, suspend the Rice Tariffication Law and strengthen state intervention in the market.
Stronger buffer stocks could help stabilize rice prices at P40 to P50/kg, Glipo said.
“For the long term, we need to move toward a resilient rice industry,” she added while advocating for agroecological farming and reduced dependence on petrochemicals.
Agroecological farming applies ecological principles to agriculture to produce healthy food while restoring biodiversity, protecting the soil and strengthening rural communities.
Reduced dependence on petrochemicals is shifting away from synthetic, oil-based inputs — specifically fertilizers (like urea) and pesticides (insecticides, herbicides) — toward ecological, organic or integrated methods to grow rice.
