MANILA, Philippines — A hypothetical presidential and vice presidential tandem of former vice president and now Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo and Sen. Raffy Tulfo leads a pairing of Davao City Mayor Sebastian “Baste” Duterte and Sen. Robin Padilla, 43 percent to 39 percent, in the first OCTA Research survey testing the two combinations for the 2028 elections.
The four-percentage-point advantage, however, masks a sharp regional divide, with Robredo and Tulfo enjoying a commanding lead in Luzon while Duterte and Padilla overwhelmingly dominate in Mindanao, according to OCTA's third-quarter 2026 Tugon ng Masa survey released on Tuesday.
The Robredo-Tulfo tandem leads 61 percent to 19 percent in Balance Luzon and 49 percent to 32 percent in Metro Manila. In contrast, the Duterte-Padilla pairing commands 81 percent in Mindanao, against 4 percent for its rivals.
A close contest was seen in Visayas, with Duterte and Padilla receiving 43 percent and Robredo and Tulfo 41 percent.
The survey also found a pronounced ethnolinguistic divide. Robredo and Tulfo lead among Tagalog or Filipino respondents, 54 percent to 24 percent, and Ilocanos, 80 percent to 8 percent.
Duterte and Padilla, meanwhile, enjoy a commanding 75-percent preference among Cebuano or Bisaya respondents, compared with 10 percent for Robredo and Tulfo.
OCTA said the national lead appears to reflect two large but opposing regional and ethnolinguistic advantages rather than a broad-based advantage for either tandem.
Despite the national lead, neither pairing commands majority support, with 18 percent of respondents saying they would vote for neither tandem or were undecided.
The results are based on face-to-face interviews with 1,200 adult Filipinos conducted from September 28 to October 4, 2026. OCTA reported a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at a 95-percent confidence level.
The poll is the research firm's first measurement of the hypothetical Robredo-Tulfo and Duterte-Padilla matchup and serves as a baseline for future surveys.
The findings come despite Robredo reiterating on November 9 that she would not seek the presidency in 2028, saying she intended to run for reelection as Naga City mayor instead.
