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POLITICAL analysts are highlighting the twin forces of voter demand for stability and the surge of young voters as pivotal in reshaping the landscape of Sabah’s 17th General Election.
Senior lecturer at Universiti Teknologi MARA, Dr Ismail Rakibe, said post-nomination analyses show a highly balanced contest, with Barisan Nasional (BN) and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) projected as the two dominant blocs likely to lead the outcome.
“Stability continues to be the dominant sentiment in the field, especially among rural and semi-urban voters who favour a more predictable and orderly administration,” Dr Ismail said.
He noted that BN’s strategy of fielding nearly 80 per cent new candidates has generated a positive psychological impact, blending an image of renewal with the party’s historical role as a key pillar of Sabah governance.
“This generates the perception that BN is returning as a more stable choice, even though it still faces resource constraints compared to incumbents,” he added.
The unprecedented influx of more than 660,000 new voters under the Undi18 and automatic registration initiatives has elevated the youth vote into a decisive factor in the election.
“Digital data show that BN and GRS remain the two most prominent coalitions among young voters on platforms such as TikTok and Instagram Reels,” Dr Ismail explained.
“However, increased engagement with newer and younger BN candidates reflects a progressive shift toward the party, in line with youth preferences for candidates judged on integrity, accessibility, solutions to basic issues such as water and electricity, and a fresher communication style.”
Analysts stress that parties presenting renewal through their candidate line-ups appear better aligned with the aspirations of young voters, who are less bound by traditional political loyalties.
Dr Ismail said that the final day of campaigning is expected to play a pivotal role, consistent with Sabah’s history of last-minute momentum swings.
Yet the influence of a large youth electorate and digitally driven campaigning may produce outcomes that diverge from historical voting patterns.
“Projections of an 18–18 seat split between GRS and BN indicate that Sabah voters are now making choices based on current issues, daily experiences, and candidate evaluations rather than ideological lines,” Dr Ismail said.
He emphasised that the next state government is likely to emerge through post-election negotiations rather than a single-party majority.
“The formation of the Sabah government will depend on discussions among the main blocs, the role of middle-ground parties like Warisan and Pakatan Harapan, and the support of smaller parties that could become kingmakers in a hung State Legislative Assembly,” he added.
Dr Ismail concluded that the 2025 Sabah State Election represents not merely a contest for political dominance but a test of parties’ ability to engineer stable coalitions capable of governing the state effectively. - November 27, 2025