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SABAHANS arrive at the polls today in what analysts describe as one of the most consequential state elections in recent memory, with 73 seats in the State Legislative Assembly at stake and early indications pointing towards a hung assembly.
More than 1.74 million ordinary voters are eligible to cast their ballots across 882 polling centres, following an early-voting turnout of 92.5 per cent among military and police personnel and their spouses earlier in the week.
The Election Commission (EC) has advised voters to arrive early, bring identification cards, avoid attire bearing political insignia and prepare for wet weather, with rain and afternoon thunderstorms forecast across several districts.
Political scientist Mujibu Abd Muis of Universiti Teknologi Mara said the contest remains wide open despite the perceived momentum behind Warisan.
“Warisan is moving as a well-organised and cohesive opposition bloc. At the same time, we also know there is sentiment rejecting Peninsular-based parties.
“Although sentiment seems to favour Warisan, what we can see at this stage is that voters are still hesitant and not yet solid,” he said, adding that rural constituencies may be less influenced by issues such as corruption.
Mujibu noted that GRS, as the incumbent state government, retains inherent advantages, while BN continues to command pockets of longstanding support.
“The sentiments mentioned may affect certain areas. Issues like corruption may not matter as much in rural constituencies. So, the likelihood is that the outcome will be a hung assembly. This is an early projection,” he said.
The ability of parties to consolidate their core supporters and attract undecided voters in the final days of campaigning, he added, could prove decisive:
“In the last days of the campaign, some may be able to draw in fence-sitters. So, whoever can retain their loyal votes and swing the fence-sitters will win.”
Should the assembly end up without a clear majority, coalition negotiations are expected to begin quickly.
Mujibu said the numbers favour a potential alignment involving GRS, PH and BN, with PH serving as a bridge should BN’s support be required.
However, he cautioned that forming a government may still be complicated if the three blocs fall short of the 37 seats needed for a simple majority.
“If another bloc wins the most seats, then who will be able to negotiate with them? This will be interesting to watch because, in the end, we know it will go ‘back to elite politics’,” he said.
Competition is intense, with 596 candidates from 22 political parties – alongside a record number of independents – contesting the 73 seats.
Local parties and coalitions dominate the field, including Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), Warisan, Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku Sabah (STAR Sabah), Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) and Upko, competing alongside national coalitions such as Barisan Nasional (BN), Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Perikatan Nasional (PN).
In some constituencies, voter choice is particularly crowded: Tulid sees a 14-cornered fight, while Bandau, Tamparuli and Inanam each feature 13 candidates.
Polling stations opened at 7.30am, with some remote or island locations scheduled to close as early as midday because of logistical challenges.
Most centres will shut by 5pm, with the EC aiming to announce initial results around 10pm and to conclude counting by midnight, though weather could affect timelines.
Local issues have dominated the 14-day campaign, which concluded last night after an energetic period of ceramah, house-to-house canvassing and community outreach.
Infrastructure, cost of living, state rights, the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63), the 40 per cent revenue entitlement and questions of autonomy have shaped the political conversation, reflecting a pronounced voter appetite for greater control over Sabah’s governance.
Analysts note a discernible shift towards local parties and candidates, with sentiment against Peninsular-based parties more visible than in previous polls.
The EC has deployed extensive logistical support – including boats, four-wheel-drive vehicles and helicopters across 85 locations – to ensure ballot papers reach counting centres safely.
Sabah Electricity Sdn Bhd has placed 25 mobile generators at key counting sites, supported by 500 staff working in shifts to maintain uninterrupted power.
Employers have been reminded to allow reasonable time off for workers to vote, as the Sabah government has declared polling day a public holiday.
Voters have been warned not to use mobile phones inside voting streams and not to surrender identity cards to anyone other than authorised election officers.
Turnout is expected to exceed 60 per cent, depending on weather conditions. The previous state election in 2020 saw 66.61 per cent voter participation.
With a crowded field, intense local contestation and no single coalition expected to command an outright majority, Sabah’s political future is likely to hinge on post-poll negotiations – setting the stage for a potentially dramatic realignment of power in the state. - November 29, 2025