JUST two hours before United States President Bobo the Simpleminded’s deadline on Wednesday morning for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz or else the US would “end its civilization,” it was announced that Iran and the US had agreed to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan. The US will hold off on the whole ending civilization thing, while Iran will allow shipping through the strait. It was initially unclear whether or not Israel was a party to the agreement, and would likewise pause its campaign in southern Lebanon; Pakistani officials were reportedly saying yes, while US and Israeli officials were saying nothing. I would expect that to be clarified one way or the other by the time this column goes to print, but my deadline can’t wait for these jackasses to make up their minds, so I’m going to proceed on the assumption that the ceasefire agreement does include Israel, at least in a limited way.
It is also being reported, at least by the Iranians, that the US has accepted Iran’s conditions for a firm end to the war, which I would find hard to believe except for the fact that the aforementioned Bobo publicly said Iran’s terms were “a significant step but not good enough,” when they were first received, and then later described them as “a workable basis on which to negotiate.” I think someone wrote that last part for him, since he is not known for making grammatically correct statements.
From the American point of view, and by extension, the Israeli point of view, if it is at all true that the US will accept all or even most of Iran’s 10-point formula for the end of the war, that would represent a surrender by the US and Israel. The 10 points include a permanent end to the war; firm guarantees that Iran will not be attacked again by the US or Israel; the lifting of all sanctions against Iran; a guaranteed end to regional fighting against Iran’s allies and the withdrawal of Israel from Lebanon; reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but under Iranian control with a toll charge of $2 million per ship, to be shared with Oman; reparations for war damage; the release of all frozen Iranian assets overseas; and a complete withdrawal of all US forces from bases in the Gulf region.
What’s missing in that, of course, is any mention of Iran’s nuclear program, which both the US and Israel desperately want to eliminate, and which Iran has stubbornly hung onto for decades because of its value as a bargaining chip. That is probably what the Iranian leadership have in mind again, but it is difficult to see how negotiations could progress to a point where that chip could even be played. Nothing in Iran’s other terms is really negotiable from their point of view, except for perhaps the issue of reparations, and more to the point, none of it has to be. Iran has taken grievous damage from US and Israeli attacks but it has held its own, dealt out some serious damage against its enemies and their allies, and demonstrated that it can bring the world economy to its knees.
I would not bet on the ceasefire lasting two days, let alone two weeks. Israel will do something to violate it, and maybe already has by the time this column hits the street. What follows will almost certainly be much nastier than the war already has been. Predictions are invidious, however, and have been especially so in this conflict, involving two intractable hard-line regimes (Israel’s Zionists and Iran’s clerics), and one that is a cult of personality being led by a dictator who is an underpants-on-head level of crazy. So, let’s make the boldly optimistic assumption that the rest of the world will have at least a two-week respite; what should the Philippines do with it?
First of all, whatever “national energy emergency” actually means, that should be maintained, and only lifted once a formal peace agreement to end the war is signed, however unlikely that may be. Any ships and cargoes that need to move from or into the Persian Gulf or pass through the Red Sea must be expedited; the latter is a concern, because a resumption of hostilities will almost certainly result in the closure of the Bab el Mandeb choke point, and maybe the Suez Canal as well.
Any Filipinos in the region should be strongly encouraged to leave, if they can, and those who wish to should be assisted by the government. Obviously, many will be reluctant to leave, and because of the importance of overseas Filipino worker remittances to the economy here, the government will naturally be reluctant to force them. That cannot be helped, but the government should make sure its evacuation plans are clear and in place if the circumstances fall apart again. And, it should make it clear to those Filipinos who do wish to remain in the region that they do so at their own risk; while every effort will be made to rescue them if it becomes necessary, it may not be possible to do so.
As a final note, just as I was finishing this piece at about 9:45 a.m. Wednesday morning, there was a report, attributed to an Israeli military spokesman speaking to CNN, that Israel is still carrying out strikes against Iran and Iran’s Hezbollah allies in Lebanon. Thus, my pessimistic estimate of a two-week ceasefire not lasting two days may not be too far off the mark, unfortunately. This is all the more reason for our government here to hasten its own preparations and responses.
ben.kritz@manilatimes.net
Bluesky: @benkritz.bsky.social
Website: www.badmannersgunclub.com
