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A STRONG El Niño event is increasingly likely to develop by the middle of 2026, with scientists warning it could amplify already elevated temperatures in Malaysia and globally.
Fellow of the Academy of Sciences Malaysia, Professor Dr Fredolin Tajudin Tangang, said forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center indicate a more than 70 per cent probability of the phenomenon forming by July or August, rising to between 80 and 90 per cent by the end of the year.
He said the event is expected to intensify towards late 2026 and early 2027 before gradually weakening between March and April, and ending around May.
Fredolin explained that Malaysia is currently transitioning out of the Northeast Monsoon season, which typically concludes at the end of March, before entering an inter-monsoon phase in April and May characterised by unstable weather patterns.
“This inter-monsoon phase typically brings weather conditions dominated by localised convection systems, resulting in thunderstorms and heavy rainfall over short periods, with the potential to trigger flash floods, particularly along the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia.
“During this period, the country’s weather is also influenced by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which can lead to hot conditions when convection is suppressed, thereby reducing cloud formation and rainfall,” he said as reported by Sinar Harian.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation is currently contributing to hotter conditions, particularly in northern Peninsular Malaysia, due to suppressed convection and dominant high atmospheric pressure over the Southeast Asian region.
“This situation increases solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface and reduces cooling through evaporation, thereby potentially triggering heatwaves.
“However, these conditions are usually temporary and change within one to two weeks,” he added.
At the same time, the global climate system is nearing the end of a La Niña phase that began in mid-2025 and is expected to transition into a neutral state within the El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycle.
Fredolin noted that ENSO is a natural interaction between the atmosphere and the Pacific Ocean, alternating between El Niño, La Niña and neutral phases every two to five years.
“The El Niño phenomenon is capable of increasing global temperatures, as seen in 2024 when global temperatures reached 1.55 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, making it the hottest year on record.
“Although global temperatures declined slightly in 2025 due to the influence of La Niña, it still ranked as the third hottest year as a result of ongoing global warming,” he said.
He warned that 2026 could surpass previous records if a strong El Niño develops, increasing the likelihood of it becoming the hottest year on record.
The outlook comes as Malaysia is already experiencing intense heat during Hari Raya Aidilfitri, prompting health experts to caution against prolonged exposure to high temperatures.
Associate Professor of Medicine and Public Health Specialist at the Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia, Dr Mohd Dzulkhairi Mohd Rani, said festive activities combined with extreme weather could heighten health risks.
“The hot weather we are experiencing now does not merely cause discomfort. It can also lead to more serious health risks, including heatstroke, which can be life-threatening.
“During the festive season, we tend to be more active with visits and spend more time outdoors. In such hot conditions, this can lead to dehydration, heat exhaustion or extreme body temperatures, with heatstroke being the most serious outcome.
“The combination of hot weather and festive activities can increase health risks without us even realising it,” he said.
He explained that symptoms of heatstroke include a dangerously high body temperature, confusion and seizures, requiring immediate action.
“What we need to do is act quickly by moving the victim to a shaded or air-conditioned area.
“Cool the body, wipe with water, place ice on areas such as the neck and underarms, loosen clothing, and if the person is conscious, give them water and immediately call the emergency line 999,” he added.
As climate risks intensify, experts stress that both long-term preparedness and immediate precautions will be critical in reducing the impact of extreme heat on public health. - March 23, 2026