Su Chiao-hui, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) candidate for mayor of New Taipei, holds a 3-point lead over opposition rival Lee Shu-chuan in a United Daily News poll released on November 9, but slightly more voters expect Lee to win the race for Taiwan's most populous city.
The survey put Su at 42% and Lee at 39%, a gap that sits right at the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.0 percentage points. An independent candidate drew 0.6%, while 19% of respondents were undecided or declined to say whom they would vote for if the election were held the next day.
New Taipei, which surrounds the capital Taipei, is one of the most closely watched contests of the 2026 Taiwan local elections, when voters nationwide will choose mayors, county chiefs, and councilors on November 28. The city has been governed by the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) since it was upgraded to a special municipality in 2010, and incumbent Mayor Hou Yu-ih cannot run again because of term limits.
Su, a three-term legislator and daughter of former Premier Su Tseng-chang, is trying to take the city for the DPP. Lee, a former deputy mayor making his first run for elected office, is the joint candidate of the KMT and the smaller opposition Taiwan People's Party (TPP).
Voters Still Give Lee A Slight Edge To Win
Asked who they think will win, rather than whom they support, 37% of respondents picked Lee and 36% picked Su. Another 27% said they could not tell.
The picture is just as murky among voters with no party leaning. Su won 31% of this group and Lee 29%, while 39% remained on the fence. Asked to predict the winner, neutral voters split evenly at 25% each, and half said they could not call the race.
Interest in the contest runs high. Some 69% of respondents said they care about the mayoral race and 25% said they do not. Engagement was slightly stronger in Su's camp, where 80% of her supporters said they follow the race, compared with 76% of Lee's backers.
Women Favor Su While Men Lean Toward Lee
The poll found a clear gender gap. Among men, 46% backed Lee, 7 points more than Su. Among women, 44% supported Su, putting her 12 points ahead of Lee.
Both candidates have consolidated their own bases. Some 86% of KMT supporters said they would vote for Lee, and 91% of DPP supporters backed Su. The opposition alliance also appears to be holding: 82% of TPP supporters said they would vote for Lee, against 10% for Su.
Su Leads In Sanchong And Tucheng As Lee Holds Xindian
Broken down by city council electoral district, Su is strongest in the Luzhou and Sanchong area and in the district covering Shulin, Yingge, Tucheng, and Sanxia. She drew 47% in both areas, leading Lee by 14 to 17 points.
Lee performed better in Xindian and in Zhonghe and Yonghe, where he led Su by more than 10 points. In Banqiao, home to New Taipei City Hall, 42% backed Su and 36% backed Lee.
Image And Policy Ratings Show Little Daylight
Voters view the two candidates in similar terms. Some 42% said they like Su, 25% said they dislike her, and 33% had no opinion. For Lee, 38% expressed a favorable view, 24% an unfavorable one, and 38% had no opinion.
On their plans for the city, 31% said Su offers the more appealing vision and 28% chose Lee, while 40% had no view.
United Daily News Poll Adds To A Mixed Polling Picture
Recent surveys of the New Taipei race have pointed in different directions, reflecting differences in sponsors, timing, and methods.
| Poll (release date) | Su Chiao-hui (DPP) | Lee Shu-chuan (KMT) |
| United Daily News (Nov. 9) | 42% | 39% |
| Pearson Data (Oct. 15) | 45.18% | 45.74% |
| Xinmin Cross-Strait Research Association, telephone (Oct. 13) | 43.1% | 30.0% |
| Z Media (late September) | 38.2% | 37.1% |
| TVBS for the KMT New Taipei City Council caucus, telephone (Sept. 2) | 33.1% | 39.8% |
The United Daily News survey was conducted from November 1 to 7 and reached 1,114 adults with household registration in New Taipei, while 261 people declined to take part. It sampled from both landline and mobile phone directories, adding mobile-only households that landline polling misses, and weighted results by the gender and age profile of the city's registered voters aged 20 and older. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The newspaper paid for the poll.
With 19 days left before the vote and nearly one in five voters still undecided, the result suggests New Taipei remains a toss-up, and the outcome will be one of the clearest tests of the ruling party's strength in the 2026 Taiwan local elections.
You've read it. Now join the conversation — follow us on X, Facebook and IG. Editor: Penny Wang
