Taipei Mayor Poll: 54% of 2022 Swing Voters Back Ruling Party Rival

More than half of the Taipei residents who voted for independent candidate Huang Shan-shan in the 2022 mayoral race now plan to back Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Puma Shen, according to a poll released on October 22, handing Taiwan's ruling party an edge among the swing voters who could decide the capital in the 2026 Taiwan local elections.

The survey by Taiwanese media outlet Z Media found that 54.4% of Huang's 2022 voters now support Shen, while 34.1% back Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT), who is seeking a second term. Taipei goes to the polls on November 28.

Huang's 340,000 Votes Are The Prize In Taipei

Huang, a former Taipei deputy mayor who later served as a Taiwan People's Party (TPP) legislator, ran as an independent in 2022 and won 342,141 votes, or 25.14%. Chiang won that race comfortably with 575,590 votes (42.29%), ahead of the DPP's Chen Shih-chung, the former health minister, who took 434,558 votes (31.93%).

With only two major candidates on the ballot this time, where Huang's voters go is one of the biggest questions of the race. The Z Media result points in the same direction as a TVBS survey earlier this month, which found that 53% of Huang's 2022 voters favored Shen and 39% favored Chiang.

Z Media cautioned that the subgroup is small. Of the 1,074 people surveyed, 13.1% said they voted for Huang in 2022, which works out to roughly 140 respondents, so that figure carries a wider margin of error than the poll as a whole.

Chiang Holds 72.7% Of His 2022 Voters As 16.2% Defect

The poll also shows the incumbent leaking support from his own base. Among respondents who voted for Chiang in 2022, 72.7% said they would vote for him again, but 16.2% said they would switch to Shen.

Shen, by contrast, has consolidated the DPP vote almost entirely. Of those who backed Chen four years ago, 93.6% now support Shen and just 1.6% support Chiang.

Overall, the same survey put Shen at 42.8% and Chiang at 39.0%, a lead within the poll's margin of error. Other recent polls have produced very different gaps. A survey commissioned by the Xinmin Cross-Strait Research Association and released on October 20 showed Shen ahead 50.3% to 33.3%, while a TVBS poll earlier in October had Chiang leading 49% to 41%.

Taipei Voters Now Lean Toward The Green Camp

Asked about party preference, 35.9% of respondents said they support the DPP, 25.4% the KMT, and 9.4% the TPP. On the broader political spectrum, 37.3% identified with the pan-green camp led by the DPP, 29.6% with the pan-blue camp led by the KMT, and 26.9% described themselves as centrist voters.

Asked how they voted in 2022, 37.9% of respondents said Chiang, 20.7% Chen, 13.1% Huang, and 1.4% another candidate. Another 16.4% said they did not vote or cast a spoiled ballot, 1.8% were not yet eligible to vote, and 8.7% said they could not remember.

How The Z Media Survey Was Conducted

Z Media funded the poll, which was carried out by Shanshui Public Opinion Research from October 18 to 19 using computer-assisted telephone interviews. Landline numbers in Taipei were drawn by systematic sampling with the last two digits randomized.

Respondents were residents aged 20 or older with household registration in Taipei. The survey completed 1,074 interviews, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.99 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Results were weighted by district, gender, age, and education to match Interior Ministry population data.

With the TPP cooperating with the KMT in this year's races, Huang's former supporters are a bloc both camps are chasing. If the Z Media numbers hold, they could prove decisive in the marquee contest of the 2026 Taiwan local elections.

Original Article In Chinese