England somehow lose a place in the World Cup final, because Thomas Tuchel loses his bottle.
This dogged campaign, that had England on the brink of their greatest moment since 1966, somehow ends as the worst yet: a 2-1 defeat to Argentina that should never have happened.
They ceded the initiative, ceded the pitch, ceded the space around their box and – finally – ceded the game. The decision to go to five at the back as early as the second-half hydration break – in the 67th minute – was inexplicable at the time and now feels like it will go down as one of the most confounding moments in English football history.
The hydration break saw the floodgates open for England. The criticism will rightly be scathing. There might not have been an actual trophy on the line, as in the Euro 2020 final, but the self-inflicted collapse feels all the more needless and consequently much worse.
Gareth Southgate never did this.
It only fosters the sense that it’s just never going to happen.
Is this sackable? All that money… for this?
It is honestly remarkable that a coach appointed for his tactical acumen, for his perceived ability to get over the line, actually forces England further away from it with a response that was pure football cowardice.
Sure, England might not have beaten Spain in the final… but it would have been nice to give themselves the chance.
Instead, Tuchel’s decision actively reduced the team’s chances. It neutered every advantage that England had over Argentina, from their pace to their greater athleticism.
At a moment when England had the lead and all momentum, the manager bizarrely went for what he did in the last-16 match against Mexico.
Except, England had 11 men on the pitch. And Argentina are not Mexico. They have the greatest player in history, who now still has the chance to win his second World Cup.
A semi-final against England was not, ultimately, to be Lionel Messi's last game in the competition.
Far from being the worst thing that Argentina could have imagined, it was somehow worse than anything England could have feared. There was somehow a new way to lose.
The worst part is that didn’t come from Messi being on his best form and making it happen.
He had been a distant force for most of the game, only ever flicking at the match and struggling to cover the expanse of the England half, but Tuchel’s inexplicable shift allowed him to have the ball in the most dangerous area.
Of course, it was Messi that suppled the assists for both Argentina goals, even if one was a simple pass for a rocket.
That was just as bad, though. Enzo Fernandez had a chasm of space around him, England having vacated the entire area at the edge of the box.
Long before then, though, even those newly arriving to the game from this World Cup – let alone this great manager appointed for his genius – could see this was only going one way.
Argentina were creating too many chances. There were too many Messi-driven one-twos around the box. There were too many crosses from similar expanses of space. There were those two headers that should have been equalisers long before Fernandez’s goal, one an admittedly fine save by Jordan Pickford from Lisandro Martinez, another Alexis Mac Allister hitting the post.
It was a question of maths. It was simply not adding up for England.
Lionel Scaloni, in complete contrast to Tuchel, further changed the equation with brave subs. Every one was right. Every one further tilted it, culminating in substitute Lauturo Martinez’s winning header.
The worst thing that actually happened for England was going ahead, as it gave Tuchel the licence to… do that.
An even greater frustration was that the opening goal was so well worked, a supreme display of discipline after an immensely difficult match.
England had been drawn into the kind of attritional game that Argentina wanted, but they held their nerve. The flowing counter that resulted in Anthony Gordon’s fine goal was the distillation of this discipline.
That it was followed by Djed Spence’s perfect and emotionally pulsating tackle made it seem like this was the day.
At one point, Messi was caught looking up at the clock on the giant screen, knowing his time in this competition was nearly up.
Argentina had barely created a proper chance. Until Tuchel’s subs...
And, worse, having ceded the lead to Argentina, the same subs meant they had no response. This manager signed for his tactical sophistication ended up getting his players to lump the ball up to Dan Burn.
There is now so much swirling around this, from questions over Tuchel to the FA’s approach and why a hugely wealthy English football culture doesn’t have a tactical idea and still couldn’t produce their own coach – not to mention the gradual proximity to Gianni Infantino.
No one could look to refereeing decisions here, though, outside the early permissiveness. That didn’t really matter by the time Gordon scored. What mattered was Tuchel’s decisions.
Amid all of that, there’s a lot of pop culture swirling around, all the memories of this World Cup.
Today was gonna be the day, but they'll never throw it back to you.
And since we’re in America, there’s a line that closes one of the most famous pieces of cinema, Easy Rider.
We blew it. Good night, man.
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