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PETALING JAYA: The upcoming Negeri Sembilan election is expected to be a tighter contest compared to Johor due to the growing number of marginal seats and a closer fight in Malay-majority and mixed constituencies, say analysts.
However, they add that Barisan Nasional’s (BN) strong win in Johor could influence fence-sitters in Negeri Sembilan into supporting the coalition.
Universiti Malaya socio-political analyst Datuk Professor Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said BN’s victory in Johor may boost campaign morale, strengthen confidence among Malay voters, and reinforce the perception that the coalition is stable and capable of governing.
“Fence-sitters who tend to support parties seen to be on the rise may also be influenced,” he said.
However, he said the Negeri Sembilan poll is expected to be a much tighter contest, driven by narrow margins, shifts in Perikatan Nasional (PN) votes, growing non-Malay support for BN, the strength of local candidates, and the effectiveness of voter turnout strategies.
He added that the relatively small number of state seats in Negeri Sembilan, which stands at 36 compared to 56 in Johor, amplifies the impact of local voting shifts.
Awang Azman said Negeri Sembilan has more closely contested seats because support is more evenly split between parties, with many constituencies decided by slim majorities.
“In Negeri Sembilan, even small swings in votes can have outsized effects,” he said, adding that a shift of just 500 to 1,000 votes could determine the outcome in several constituencies.
He said turnout, local issues, candidate selection, campaign machinery and multi-cornered contests would be crucial factors in determining constituency-level results.
Nearly one in three Negeri Sembilan seats was decided by fewer than 1,000 votes in the 2023 state election, compared with roughly one in eight in Johor’s 2022 state poll.
In contrast, only four seats in Johor were won with majorities of fewer than 1,000 votes in its recent election, compared to seven in 2022.
Meanwhile, the number of seats won by the victorious coalition in Negeri Sembilan since 2008 also reflects a narrowing electoral gap.
Awang Azman said longer-term trends point to a steady increase in marginal seats in Negeri Sembilan, signalling a gradual shift away from “safe seat politics” towards tighter, more localised contests.
He added that Malay-majority and semi-urban seats are now more exposed to competition from PN, while PN-BN cooperation does not always translate into seamless vote transfers at the grassroots level.
“In the past, electoral patterns were relatively clear-cut, with BN maintaining strong grassroots networks in rural and semi-urban areas, while PN performed better in urban and mixed constituencies.
“However, this traditional divide has become less consistent in recent elections,” he said.
Universiti Sains Malaysia political sociologist Professor Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian said Negeri Sembilan reflects a more advanced stage of electoral convergence, with party advantages becoming thinner and more evenly distributed.
“It suggests that Negeri Sembilan is becoming more competitive and fluid over time, with weakening traditional loyalties and stronger issue-based voting,” he said.
He said while the Johor election provides BN with valuable momentum and a psychological boost heading into the Negeri Sembilan poll, the latter remains a more competitive and less predictable contest.
This is due to Negeri Sembilan’s more fragmented electoral landscape, higher number of marginal seats and stronger multi-cornered competition.
“While BN will seek to replicate the Johor narrative of stability and performance, the outcome in Negeri Sembilan will depend more on local issues, candidate selection, voter turnout and constituency-level dynamics than on Johor’s result alone.
“Johor is therefore a positive indicator for BN, but not a definitive predictor of Negeri Sembilan,” he said.
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia political analyst Assoc Professor Dr Mazlan Ali said that while BN’s victory in Johor may give the coalition added momentum in Negeri Sembilan, the state’s political demographics differ significantly from Johor’s.
“Negeri Sembilan’s political landscape is highly fragile and difficult to predict due to the narrow balance of power, complex coalition dynamics and the possibility of shifting alliances between BN, PN and Pas following the Johor polls,” he said. -THE STAR
