MANILA, Philippines — Senators Raffy Tulfo, Robin Padilla, Alan Peter Cayetano and Pasig City Mayor Vico Sotto are statistically tied for the top spot in the early race for the 2028 senatorial elections, according to an OCTA Research survey released Monday.
Tulfo topped the Sept. 28 to Oct. 4 2026 survey with 47 percent of respondents saying they would likely vote for him if the elections were held today. Padilla followed with 45 percent, Cayetano with 44 percent and Sotto with 42 percent.
Despite the differences in their scores, OCTA placed all four in the same first-to-fourth rank range, indicating that their relative positions were not statistically distinct.
Sen. Grace Poe ranked next with 36 percent, followed by Sen. Loren Legarda with 31 percent.
Former Makati City mayor Abby Binay received 29 percent, followed by Pampanga governor Mark Lapid with 28 percent and Sen. Francis Escudero with 27 percent.
Education Secretary Sonny Angara and former senator Manny Pacquiao each registered 25 percent, while media personality Ben Tulfo garnered 23 percent and Sen. Jinggoy Estrada 22 percent.
Former Senate president Aquilino “Koko” Pimentel III and former presidential spokesman Salvador “Sal” Panelo each received 20 percent, while Sen. Mark Villar got 19 percent.
Former senators Gringo Honasan and Labor Secretary Francis Tolentino each recorded 18 percent.
OCTA said the overlapping rank ranges of several prospective candidates showed that the contest for the 12 Senate seats remained open, with a number of names still statistically within reach of the preliminary top 12.
Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro Jr. registered 16 percent, placing him in the same broad 14th-to-29th rank range as several other prospective candidates.
Others who received 16 percent were television personality Willie Revillame, former Interior secretary Benhur Abalos, party-list lawmaker Bonifacio Bosita and Sen. JV Ejercito.
Former senator Bong Revilla, former Senate president Franklin Drilon and former lawmaker Robert “Ace” Barbers each received 15 percent.
The latest results showed changes in the preferences for several prospective candidates compared with OCTA’s second-quarter survey conducted from July 4 to 11.
Padilla’s rating declined from 53.9 percent to 45 percent, while Tulfo’s remained nearly unchanged, slipping from 47.4 percent to 47 percent.
Cayetano’s rating eased from 45.4 percent to 44 percent, while Sotto’s stayed at 42 percent.
Poe’s rating fell from 44.5 percent to 36 percent, Legarda’s from 39 percent to 31 percent and Pacquiao’s from 34.5 percent to 25 percent.
In contrast, Angara’s rating rose from 19.2 percent to 25 percent, while Escudero’s increased from 23.2 percent to 27 percent.
OCTA cautioned that quarter-on-quarter comparisons should be treated carefully because the list of names presented to respondents differed between survey rounds.
The poll was based on face-to-face interviews with 1,200 respondents aged 18 and above nationwide. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at a 95-percent confidence level.
Respondents were asked to select up to 12 names from a hypothetical list of prospective candidates for the May 2028 elections.
OCTA stressed that the results represented a snapshot of voter preferences during the survey period, not a forecast of the election outcome. The final field of candidates has yet to be determined, and some of those included in the survey may ultimately decide not to run.
Names receiving less than 1 percent were excluded from the published results, while some individuals initially considered for inclusion were removed at their request.
