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SHAH ALAM – The current phase of Umno-Pas engagement should be viewed as an important preparatory stage for the 16th General Election (GE16), with the process already moving beyond political rhetoric into an early stage of negotiation.
Political analyst and O2 Research head Anis Anwar Suhaimi said discussions between the two parties should not be viewed simply as either electoral cooperation or an effort to consolidate Malay-Muslim support, as both dimensions were closely interconnected.
“When Malay voters are politically fragmented, the electoral vote is also fragmented. That weakens the overall bargaining power of Malay political parties in negotiations over government formation, policy direction and the broader distribution of political influence,” he told Sinar Daily.
Anis said a sustainable understanding between Umno and Pas could not be created overnight, as both parties would need to discuss and negotiate issues ranging from seat allocation and leadership hierarchy to state-level relationships and the eventual structure of power-sharing.
He said the current phase was therefore important for building momentum, generating political legitimacy among the grassroots and resolving areas of disagreement before any formal cooperation could be institutionalised at the national level.
Recent developments supported this interpretation, he said, pointing to Umno openly stating that the door for a tahaluf siyasi (political ties) with Pas was “wide open” while preparing a formal negotiating committee for political cooperation ahead of GE16.
At the same time, he said state Umno chapters had been given room to explore local arrangements, although any final agreement would still require approval from the party’s top leadership.
Anis said these developments meant the process should not be dismissed as merely political messaging.
“The signalling function is certainly important because both parties need to prepare their supporters psychologically for renewed cooperation. But the process itself has already moved beyond rhetoric into an early stage of political negotiation,” he added.
He said efforts towards greater coordination had also not begun only after the latest Umno General Assembly, with smaller episodes of cooperation emerging before and during recent state elections.
These included avoiding direct clashes in selected contests, which he said could be viewed as earlier steps towards a potentially broader arrangement for GE16.
However, Anis said any new pact would have to learn from the experience of Muafakat Nasional, particularly the difficulties that emerged when political cooperation moved from opposition solidarity into actual power-sharing.
During the original Muafakat Nasional period, he said cooperation had been relatively easier because Umno and Pas were largely operating from the opposition, with less at stake in terms of government positions, ministries, agencies and executive power.
The relationship became more complicated after the Sheraton Move, when both parties entered the same governing arrangement and cooperation had to quickly evolve into actual power-sharing.
Many issues, particularly seat allocation, leadership hierarchy and the distribution of political power, were never fully settled, he said.
“That created friction between Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional even though both were operating under the same administrative umbrella,” he said.
Anis said any new pact would therefore require much more detailed negotiations from the outset, particularly on the structure and dynamics of power-sharing.
However, he said political leaders should broaden their perspective beyond parliamentary and state seats when discussing how power could be shared.
“If the discussion is reduced entirely to ‘who gets which constituency’, cooperation will once again become a zero-sum competition,” he said.
He said both parties could instead consider wider layers of political and economic power, including local government representation, government-linked agencies, statutory bodies, policy portfolios and economic development institutions.
Anis said protecting Malay political interests should not be understood solely in terms of the number of elected representatives, but also whether Umno and Pas could build an economic and institutional ecosystem that protected their supporters’ interests and created long-term opportunities for the Malay community.
He said widening the discussion could create more room for compromise than focusing only on the limited number of parliamentary seats available.
“Trust will therefore depend on whether both parties can move away from a narrow seat-based mentality towards a more comprehensive understanding of power-sharing,” he said.
Anis said the political architecture would ideally need to be agreed before the parties entered government, rather than being negotiated only after winning power.
“If they can agree on the political architecture before entering government, rather than trying to negotiate it after winning power, the arrangement would have a much stronger chance of surviving than Muafakat Nasional did,” he said.
He added that the success of any potential arrangement would ultimately depend on whether Umno and Pas could translate the current exploratory phase into a clear and mutually acceptable framework ahead of GE16.