A US Supreme Court ruling that struck down President Donald Trump’s tariff hikes could limit further gains for the stock market or even lead to renewed volatility, analysts said.
The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) may continue testing the 6,400–6,500 range this week, they said, supported by last week’s Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas rate cut, though renewed US tariff actions and thin trading could have the opposite effect.
The PSEi returned to the 6,400 level last Friday, rising for a third straight day to close at 6,465.12 and up 1.26 percent week on week. The bourse also remained positive since the start of the year, up by 6.81 percent.
Analysts said immediate support would be at 6,300, with resistance at 6,500, and added that the market’s ability to hold above 6,400 would determine whether the recent breakout is sustainable.
RCBC chief economist Michael Ricafort said easing US inflation expectations and a relatively strong peso were supporting the local market along with prospects of further easing following last week’s 25-basis point BSP rate cut.
He added, however, that the PSEi could see muted gains or increased volatility in the short term as investors react to the new US tariffs as this would affect global trade flows and investor sentiment.
Philstocks Financial Inc. research manager Japhet Tantiangco, meanwhile, said the PSEi remained attractive from a valuation standpoint at 10.8 times earnings, below historical and regional averages.
He added, however, that investors would be closely monitoring developments in US trade policy, corporate earnings and geopolitical risks, which could affect sentiment.
