RESEARCH firm CreditSights sees Vista Land & Lifescapes Inc. (VLL) as having enough potential funding sources to cover $420 million in maturing bonds but warns that executing the refinancing could prove difficult.
“On paper, VLL has multiple funding levers to fully bridge the $420m 2027 bond maturity, but execution, realization of proceeds, timing and/or creditor-unfriendly behavior are key risks,” the Fitch Group unit said in an Aug. 28 report.
CreditSights identified asset sales, the disposal of dollar-denominated securities, shareholder support and domestic bank financing as possible sources of funds for the maturing bonds.
However, the biggest hurdle could be securing the consent of bondholders to allow some of these transactions, particularly where existing debt covenants restrict the use of assets as collateral.
“Overall though, we imagine it will be a colossal task for VLL to secure the 75 percent approval required from the 2029 dollar and the peso bondholders, with high risk of failing to garner requisite approvals,” it said.
CreditSights said Vista Land had about P145.5 billion in investment properties as of Sept. 2025, of which P145.2 billion was unencumbered. It also had P47.7 billion in land assets for development and sale, all of which were also unencumbered.
The firm said selected malls, land and commercial units could be sold to generate cash, adding that proceeds from asset sales could cover the $420-million bond principal even at a 25 percent to 30 percent discount.
Another option would be to unlock Vista Land’s dollar-denominated securities.
CreditSights estimated that the property developer had about P32 billion in investments in dollar securities, although 90 percent to 97 percent of these were pledged against loans.
If the loans were refinanced using other collateral and the securities were subsequently sold at a 10 percent to 20 percent discount, the company could generate about P25.5 billion to P27 billion, or roughly $425 million, the research firm estimated.
CreditSights also pointed to possible support from the Villar family and domestic lenders as additional sources of liquidity.
It noted that Manuel B. Villar Jr. had previously provided P13.5 billion in subordinated shareholder loans to help repay two peso-denominated retail bond issuances.
The research firm also said the recent sale of the group’s PrimeWater infrastructure asset could improve Vista Land’s access to bank financing, with management expecting as much as P22 billion in group-wide credit limits to be freed up.
Still, CreditSights warned that Vista Land’s weak cash generation could complicate its refinancing efforts.
It projected free cash flow to remain negative through 2027: P6.5 billion in fiscal year 2025, P4.3 billion in 2026, and P2.7 billion in 2027.
Despite the refinancing risks, CreditSights maintained a “buy” recommendation on Vista Land, saying it did not expect a severely distressed outcome.
“We emphasize that principal haircuts and severely distressed actions are not our base case scenario,” the research firm said. “Management reiterated that an outright debt restructuring was not under consideration.”
Vista Land shares remain suspended from trading and last closed at P0.96 each on June 1.
