EVENTS in the Middle East could weigh on the stock market this week, during which investors will also be considering February inflation data due Thursday and fresh earnings results.
The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) snapped a seven-day win streak last Friday on what analysts said was profit-taking amid uncertainties over US-Iran tensions.
The United States and Israel launched massive strikes on Iran on Saturday, which led to the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran has launched retaliatory attacks across the region and vowed revenge for Khamenei’s death.
The PSEi closed Friday at 6,611.24, up 2.26 percent week on week and 9.22 percent higher since the start of the year. The bourse’s run of gains has returned to levels not seen since January 2025.
Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael told The Manila Times on Sunday that it would be “wait and see” given the possibility of oil prices turning volatile in the wake of the conflict in the Middle East,
“Still wait-and-see for the markets upon resumption of trading on Monday... especially if there would be volatility in global oil/energy prices and potential disruption of global oil/energy supply chains,” he said in a message.
He was echoed by Luis Limlingan, head of sales at Regina Capital Development Corp., who told the Times “with sudden attacks in the Middle East, markets may follow the price action of the rest of the region and futures.
“However many developments may happen between now and tomorrow to sway sentiment.”
Ahead of the strikes on Iran, analysts said the PSEi could see a cautious start to the week as investors would be monitoring key domestic and global economic data.
Locally, the Philippine Statistics Authority will release February inflation figures on Thursday, which could influence the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ monetary policy stance.
Globally, upcoming US manufacturing and services PMI data, alongside a nonfarm payroll report due this Friday, will be watched as proxies for the Federal Reserve’s rate direction.
“Trading in the PSEi is likely to normalize following recent rebalancing, but the index remains positioned to extend its ongoing year-to-date advance,” said Ron Acoba, chief investment strategist at Trading Edge Consultancy.
He said that immediate support lay between 6,300 and 6,400, with resistance at 6,700.
Analysts are maintaining a “buy-on-dips” stance for the PSEi, noting that recent gains are underpinned by strong fundamentals, foreign inflows and stabilizing macroeconomic indicators.