The world is “in for one hell of a ride” as an unprecedented El Nino event is set to bring more storms and rain to the UK, and affect weather patterns and harvests worldwide, experts have warned.
El Nino is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5C above the long-term average, impacting global rainfall patterns and temperatures, with sea conditions in such an event typically between 1C and 2C above average.
But the natural warming of sea temperatures in the region is forecast to reach more than 3C in the coming months, making this year’s event “the largest since the 19th century”, according to the Met Office.
It creates a heightened risk of drought in the tropics, southern Africa and north-east Australia, while north-western Europe – including the UK – is likely to experience wetter and stormier conditions in the coming autumn and early winter, the forecaster said.
And as global temperatures are pushed up by El Nino, adding to warming driven by human-made climate change, 2027 is forecast to be the hottest year on record for the world.
“We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event”, Professor Adam Scaife, head of long range forecasting at the Met Office, said.
“I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts.”
Hayley Fowler, professor of climate change impacts at Newcastle University, warned that though El Nino was a natural phenomenon that occurred every two to seven years, it is happening in a “climate already loaded towards extreme heat”, caused by climate change from burning fossil fuels.
And she said this year the UK could have storms similar to Storm Desmond, which hit in late 2015 during the last strong El Nino, causing massive flooding.
Prof Bill McGuire, professor emeritus of geophysical hazards, University College London, said the Met Office and other scientific forecasts “suggest that the world is in for one hell of a ride”.
“The astonishing and unprecedented amount of heat building across the eastern Pacific Ocean is all but certain to make this the most powerful El Nino in living memory – possibly even the biggest in several centuries,” he said.
The addition of so much heat into the atmosphere from the heated ocean could see temperatures reach or even exceed 1.7C above pre-industrial levels, he said.
And he added: “The knock-on impacts on global weather patterns are also expected to be huge – bringing drought and wildfire conditions to the Amazon and parts of Australia, torrential rainfall and floods to California, and a reduced South Asian monsoon.”
While it is not yet possible to confirm if climate change is increasing the intensity of El Nino events, “it would be a surprise if the superposition of a much hotter eastern Pacific Ocean on top of already higher global temperatures, didn’t result in the development of more extreme El Ninos,” he said.
The warning comes after much of the UK has endured a summer of droughts and heatwaves, which is on track to be the hottest on record and deliver the worst harvest in records stretching back decades, as the country faces worsening extreme weather driven by climate change.
While significant rain is needed to avoid another drought in the UK next summer, there are concerns that very wet weather could hit harvests as they did in the last El Nino in 2023 and 2024.
Chris Jaccarini, senior economist at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) think tank, pointed to the very wet winter of 2023-2024 – which scientific analysis showed was exacerbated by climate change – and which hit wheat, milk and beef production, pushing up food prices.
“In terms of UK production, El Nino is turbocharging worsening impacts that are already being driven by human-caused climate change,” he said.
And he warned that consumers were not just exposed to issues in UK production, with a quarter of the country’s food by value, and around a third by volume, coming from continents such as Asia, Africa and the Americas that would be worse hit by the El Nino.
Market prices of products such as coffee, which has been impacted by a combination of climate change and El Nino in recent years, were already rising in expectation that production would be hit as a result of this year’s event, he said.
And he said: “If we are to address these growing risks, what we need to do is move towards net zero and bring our climate into balance, so we stop these worsening extremes,” adding there was also a need to support farmers across the world to adapt to the changing climate.
And John Marsham, professor of atmospheric science at the University of Leeds, said: “The science is clear that this will affect UK weather, but it is also vital that people understand that the UK is also affected indirectly by El Nino.
“For example, an El Nino of this magnitude will affect global food production and push up UK food prices, which are already being increased by this summer’s heatwaves and droughts, which themselves were fuelled by the climate crisis.
“These forecasts for 2026 and 2027 also reveal the world we must prepare for in the coming years, as such extremes driven by the climate crisis will only get worse until we have phased out fossil fuels,” he said.
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