In a matter of weeks, Andy Burnham is poised to take on the role of prime minister, following Keir Starmer’s resignation.
The former Greater Manchester mayor has built a reputation as one of Labour's most interventionist voices on housing, championing social housebuilding, tenant protections and regional investment.
But what would a Burnham premiership actually mean for homeowners, buyers or landlords?
While many of the details remain unclear, housing experts say there are several areas likely to come under scrutiny, with mortgages and the wider housing market of particular focus.
Mortgage markets move fast on perception
Before Mr Burnham has the chance to introduce a single housing policy, financial markets will already be delivering their verdict.
Swap rates, which fixed-rate mortgage prices are based from, react fast to domestic (and global) matters which traders think could impact future Bank of England interest rate movements.
Ian Futcher, financial planner at Quilter, says borrowers should pay close attention to how investors interpret the new government's approach to public spending and borrowing.
“A Burnham-led government would be judged quickly by how markets interpret its approach to fiscal discipline, and that will flow directly into mortgage pricing,” he says.
According to Mr Futcher, even the perception of looser fiscal policy could keep mortgage costs elevated.
But the opposite is also true. A strong commitment to existing fiscal rules could reassure markets and help stabilise borrowing costs, with several lenders having dropped mortgage rates over the past few weeks including Nationwide, Barclays and Skipton Building Society.
For homeowners and prospective buyers, the key takeaway is that politics can affect mortgage rates long before any legislation is introduced.
“Mortgage rates do not move in isolation,” Mr Futcher says. “Expectations about the future path of borrowing and inflation are enough to move markets.”
Experts encourage homeowners who have a mortgage deal due for renewal to move early to secure the best rate possible. Usually, you can do this once you have six months left on your existing term - and if a better option comes along afterwards before you switch, you can almost always change. But if you wait on the expectation that rates will come down further and the opposite happens, you’ll have missed out.
Social housing and rental restrictions
Of all policy areas, housing is where Burnham's instincts are perhaps most clearly understood.
Throughout his time in Greater Manchester, he has advocated a more active role for government in tackling housing shortages, boosting affordable housing and raising standards in the rental sector.
In a speech in Manchester on Monday, Mr Burnham said “the country is in a housing trap” and called for a huge “council house building programme” to be brought in. He vowed that a Burnham government would oversee the “biggest council house building programme since the post war period”.
Mr Futcher believes the likely direction of travel under a Burnham government is “greater intervention”, particularly through expanded social housing programmes and tighter regulation of the rental market.
“Increased council housebuilding would aim to address a long-standing undersupply,” he says, noting that demand for social housing continues to far exceed availability across much of the country.
A large-scale building programme could eventually ease pressure on rents and affordability, although he cautions that any benefits would take years to emerge.
At the same time, Mr Futcher warns that policies such as rent controls could alter the economics of investing in rental property.
“While these measures may offer greater stability for tenants in the short term, there is consistent evidence that tighter regulation can reduce the supply of rental homes by discouraging investment,” he says.
Propertymark, the trade body representing estate and letting agents, believes Burnham's record points to a strong emphasis on increasing housing supply.
“His record as Mayor of Greater Manchester suggests a continued focus on increasing housing supply, particularly through social and affordable housing and brownfield-led development,” the organisation says.
Propertymark says it would welcome efforts to increase housing delivery, but warns that further intervention in the private rental sector could prove counterproductive.
The organisation has consistently opposed rent controls, arguing they risk “reducing investment, constraining supply and worsening long-term affordability”.
Instead, it argues that increasing the number of homes built remains the most effective way to improve affordability and choice for renters.
The group also points to Burnham's Good Landlord Charter as a potential guide to his national approach. While supportive of efforts to improve standards, Propertymark says any future accreditation schemes should properly recognise the role of professional letting and managing agents.
Property market valuations
For the housing industry, the central question is whether Burnham can strike a balance between greater state involvement and maintaining private sector investment.
Propertymark says the sector will be looking for “a balanced approach that supports investment, increases supply and delivers better outcomes for consumers across all tenures”.
That may ultimately be the defining challenge facing a Burnham government.
But prices of properties also play a huge role in how effective the wider market is and they could be impacted if changes occur to taxation on land or homes.
Mr Burnham has previously mentioned bringing in a Land Value Tax but Tim Stovold, head of tax at Moore Kingston Smith, told the Financial Times “a tax of this type will reduce property values when introduced.”
Few doubt that housing would move higher up the political agenda. The harder question is whether more intervention can deliver the homes Britain needs without undermining the investment required to build them.
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